Sunday, June 15, 2025

Rambling -- ChatGPT -- Investing -- June 15, 2025

Locator: 48754TECH.

The one -- somewhat surprising -- name that keeps coming up when talking AI / ChatGPT? Amazon (AMS).

None of this is ever ready for prime time. I do this for myself and my extended family members who might be interested in the subject and/or investing. No one should be reading this for investing purposes. See disclaimer at the bottom.

AI is an energy story. AI will "save" the Bakken.

CNBC is doing it's investors a huge disservice by concentrating on large, legacy companies, and spending inconsequential time on the sixth industrial revolution.

CNBC is doing a lousy job explaining to investors what ChatGPT is all about.

I spent much of the weekend with extended family members, both in their sophomore years at college, one at Texas A&M -- perhaps the best university in Texas -- and the other, majoring in STEM, at Stanford -- perhaps the best university in the known universe.

Our conversation, no matter how hard we tried to avoid it, seemed always to come back full circle to ChatGPT. 

We are using ChatGPT as a metonym.

I was curious, so I asked ChatGPT just now: how fast is ChatGPT growing?

  • ChatGPT’s growth has been astronomical since its debut in November 2022, making it one of the fastest-growing consumer apps in history.
  • 1 million users in five days after launch—the fastest for any consumer app at the time
  • 100 million monthly active users by January 2023—just two months after debut
  • By April 2025, it reached approximately 500 million weekly active users, doubling from around 250 million in late 2024 
  • Some sources even report 800 million weekly active users as of June 2025, a 4× growth year-over-year 
  • explosive revenue growth

I have spent most of the weekend studying the history of semiconductors and transistors, and then studying investment opportunities. The name that never, never, never shows up: Apple.

Zuckerberg (META) appears to have recognized how far his company was behind and has taken drastic steps to change that.

OpenAI’s Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR):

  • soared from $5.5 billion at the end of 2024 to around $10 billion by mid-2025 
  • in 2024 alone, the company grew 3×, from about $1 billion in 2023 to $3.7 billion in 2024
  • OpenAI anticipates growth to $11 billion (2025 forecast) and aims for $125 billion by 2029, with projected profitability that same year 

What's driving the surge? 

  • consumer subscriptions (“ChatGPT Plus”) and enterprise/API sales—now serving ~3 million business/education clients
  • cloud and mobile usage skyrocketing, with monthly web visits hitting 4–5 billion by March 2025 
  • frequent feature rollouts—image generation, new GPT agents, mobile apps—fueling continuous adoption 

Bottom line

  • ChatGPT is growing at a rate unprecedented in the digital age—doubling user base in months, doubling revenue in six months, and carving out a commanding position in both consumer and enterprise AI.

High school students and college freshmen in the Palo Alto area have already learned how to monetize AI to their advantage. It is the wild, wild west out there with a gold rush mentality unseen since the California gold rush's peak year of 1852.

High school students and college freshman in the ChatpGPT arena will make more money in five years than I made in twenty and they're getting the raw materials practically for free, and working from their bedrooms and/or dorm rooms.

Using ChatGTP as a metonym has fast is ChatGPT growing:

  • 80% of fortune 500 companies are now using chatGPT or similar models;
  • Microsoft has embedded GPT into nevearly ever product (Copilot, Office, Azure, Windows)
  • Google Gemini is integrated into Workspace. AWS, META, Salesforce, Adope -- all fully integrating GenAI. 

Has Apple misallocated resources? 

From Evan, June 15, 2025: Amazon just announced plans to invest ~$12 Billion in Australia. 🇦🇺 to upgrade its AI data center infrastructure in the region - WSJ

Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here.