Sara Eisen's First Hour -- September 26, 2024

Locator: 48401CRAMER.

WOW, WOW, WOW: data shows there was "no official recession" at any time in 2022.

• last recession, an anomaly, an incredibly brief downturn, Covid-lockdown: 1Q20 - 2Q20
• period under discussion:
• 4Q21: $21,960,388
• 1Q22: $21,903,850 (down)
• 2Q22: $21,919,222 (back up)
• last clear-cut recession
• 2Q08 - 3Q09
• didn't get back to 2Q08 number until 3Q10
• growing economy since 2Q08 with one very, very short period of slowness due to Covid lockdown

Strong economy: weekly first time jobless claims --

• forecast: 218,000
• actual: 223,000

Food inflation:

CAT:

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Most telling: CNBC's home is NYC. Not mentioned in Cramer's first hour -- the indictment of their mayor. Yes, it's not a business story, but ... 

Personal investing: Sophia added to her position in Palantir.

Cramer's been off this week. Sitting in for Jim Cramer: Sara Eisen. 

On a day that the market surges, BRK-B opens lower. BRK-B's one-month chart looks horrendous when compared to what has been going on in the market. That's what happens when you avoid tech.

MPC? Not on my bingo card this morning -- up 3%; up $4.50.

Back to Sara's first hour. 

First item: surging US equity markets.

Second item: Micron -- could open as much as 20% higher this morning. 

Micron is not part of the magnificent 7. Micron is an interesting company. One wouldn't think Micron would be doing this well -- one needs to remember, however, Micron is down 20% in the last six months, and much, much worse during certain time periods. One might want to listen to the CNBC interview this morning with the Micron CEO. Absolutely tied to growth of large data centers.

Ten largest data centers in US: link here (2023).

USA Data Centers: link here.

Metrics: now we need to sort out the metrics needed to compare LDCs, apples-to-apples. Start with: 

• physical size: footprint, square feet -- anything less than 1,000,000 square feet no longer gets my attention;
• energy demand: 100 MW is the new bar
• number/size of transformers: need to explore; start with 480V transformers
• number of black boxes

Meta: getting a lot of press.

Solid economic data: both Dow and NASDAQ up over 200 points at the open. S&P 500 up 36 points at the open:

GOP: growing tired of shutting down the government as a political strategy. US Congress overwhelmingly passes bill to extend funding through December 20, 2024. US Congress now goes on extended break and won't be back to Washington, DC, until after the election in early November.

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Sidebar With Reader

A reader sent me a note and link regarding commercial property values in Minneapolis. My reply which might lead to a stand-along post later. Not ready for prime time:

It's interesting to look at population of cities in major cities Ohio to Minnesota -- comparing 1990 through 2022.

Detroit, of course, is a disaster.

Pittsburg, Cincinnati, Cleveland, all doing poorly. Chicago, not as bad as Detroit, but still bad.

Madison, WI, is an exception. Significant growth.

Minneapolis/St Paul fairly level.

The problem is that at the population decreased and major corporations / businesses moved out, the cities and the states did not spend less money. Their budgets continued to increase and to pay for those budgets -- fewer people and fewer businesses.

It is incredibly difficult for many folks to move -- emotionally it's a huge challenge, if you've lived somewhere for forty years and have family their -- very difficult to move, so it takes time, but gradually over time, it will only get worse for the cities from Ohio to Minnesota.

And it's a death spiral. There is nothing to suggest that any of these cities can reverse the trend.

On the other hand, just the opposite here in Texas and west to/through Arizona. Plano is no longer the fastest growing in Texas, but it went from 128,000 in 1990 to 290,000 in 2022. 

But look at this, Frisco, just north of Dallas and neighboring Plano, a population of 6,000 in 1990 and the population is now 220,000 in 2022 and still growing, though more slowly. 

Collins County, north of Dallas, and Denton County, north of Ft Worth, both went from 70,000 in 1990 to 1,000,000 in 2022, and still growing. 

And no state income tax. Gasoline relatively cheap. Housing expensive but no worse than much of the US. Property taxes supposedly high but that's become a meme. California has both a high property tax and a high state income tax plus very, very high gasoline prices.

Nashville, though not growing as quickly as one might expect, but the county has grown from 500,000 to 700,000 since 1990, but I think Nashville / Davidson County is about ready to take off in population. Southwest Airlines just announced yesterday they are increasing number of flights from Dallas to Nashville, while cutting flights from Dallas to Atlanta, GA. 

It will take another fifty years but the gap between Texas-California-Florida-Arizona corridor and the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Illinois-Minnesota corridor will look a lot like the gap between India and Bangladesh.

California has its challenges but has too much going for it to really get into a death spiral like Michigan or Minnesota.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.