News Overnight And Stories I'm Following -- August 7, 2024

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GDPNow: wow, wow, wow!

• now that the correction is over, we're back to talking soft landing
• Jim Cramer right again, although I haven't seen his show since last Thursday
• I haven't watched CNBC since last Wednesday, July 31, 2024
  
• JPow is probably in a good mood this morning after seeing yesterday's GDPNow number;
• the "actual number" matters less than the direction, the trend
• having said that, GDP estimate for 3Q24 up 40 basis points, or is 4 basis points?
• whatever, from 2.5% to 2.9%
  

France: will likely be re-posted with some graphs; depends on my energy level

• wheat production way down; set for worst wheat harvest since 1983, but at least the Seine is clean; LOL. Blame French wheat harvest on global warming;
• North Dakota: wheat up; highest yield since tour records began in 1992; link here.
• price of wheat here;
• May 27, 2024: $715
• yesterday: $548
• price of bread should plummet. LOL.
• if the one-year chart is bad, the five-year chart is horrendous.
• tell me again why bread is so expensive
• May 9, 2022: $1,166
• yesterday: $548
• inflation: transitory, very transitory;
• growing up: I grew up on global headlines -- North Dakota is breadbasket of the world
• and, then, of course, we had Iowa, and corn; price here;
• October 19, 2023: $508
• yesterday: plummeting; latest, $385
• price of corn tortillas should plummet. LOL
• if the one-year chart is bad, the five-year chart is horrendous.
• tell me again why corn syrup is so expensive
• April 18, 2022: $808
• yesterday: $385
• inflation: transitory, very transitory;
• ticker DE:
• down 20% in past year;
• the five day correction didn't help; down 7% over five days
• at least the price of diesel is cheaper than ever for the farmers; price here;
  
• May 2022: $4.65
• latest, 2024: $2.62
• down 77% in two years (Biden-Harris economy)
  
• inflation: transitory, very transitory;

France: wheat harvest -- the narrative --

• North Dakota production alone will offset losses in France, Russia, and Ukraine. Needs to be fact-checked. Waiting.

WTI: up 1% overnight. Whoo-hoo.

Saudi:

• can't sustain dividend payout
• actually it can, for quite some time; 
• the Prince will simply bleed the country dry to fund pet projects
• LIV golf; NOEM
  
• free cash flow: $19 billion; dividend: $31 billion (annual)
• will not cut dividend this year

AI:

• two camps -- hype; not hype
• I'm in the second camp

WMB:

• corroborates my view on AI.
• hyperscaler demand for natural gas unprecedented

Rivian: the EV narrative continues. RIVN down over 7% in pre-market (5:41 a.m. CDT). 

• VW, at $5 billion, invested almost as much in Rivian, and Biden-Harris invested in Intel ($8.5 billion)

Siemens: the renewable energy narrative continues. 

Iran: reconsidering. LOL. The US Navy seems to have put a damper on Iran's rhetoric.

US politics:

• don't underestimate the power of Israeli lobby
• NY state and Trump
• second member of the squad taken out; kinda sad, really. Not.
• Walz: about as much excitement as avocado-on-toast at a Texas Rangers baseball game
• Harris has a history of poor political choices, but how did the vetting process blow it
• the other contenders must have had some real negative baggage that the media is not reporting
  
• the usual playbook: presidential nominees don't want to be overshadowed by their VP selections
• exhibit A: Trump / Vance

Intel: still in the news

• too important to fail, but ...
• Intel is GPU-poor: dissecting the company's disastrous 2Q24 earnings; link here, August 5, 2024
• best posts ever on this subject, on any website that is ad-free, subscription-free, and password-free;
• Intel's issues go beyond AI; this is the problem -- TheStreet, might be password-protected;
• op-ed from The New York Post -- just what I would expect from The New York Post;