Market Surges / Surges -- Fed Maintains Rate -- July 31, 2024

Locator: 48278INV.

Goldilocks economy:

• full employment;
• inflation less than 2% in many cases; exceptions -- housing; 
• in fact, in some areas, risk of deflation
• favors the consumer
  
• spouses happy with high-interest-bearing money market funds;
• investors happy with the market -- really happy today;
• lending rates are not unusual rates based on historical data.

Fed rate unchanged. In line with expectations.

• long, long explanation in Q&A period following prepared remarks which were very short;
• explanation in a nutshell:
  

"The US is experiencing a 'Goldilocks economy.' Anything the Fed does could disrupt this finely balanced machine running well on all eight cylinders. We -- the Fed members -- have nothing to lose by making no change, and everything to lose if we do. A rate change of 25 basis points would have no material effect on the economy but would push the market into even frothier territory."

• having said that, JPow's remarks practically confirmed a rate cut in September unless something "negative" happens that even a caveman could see.

Market following announcement:

Hess: 2Q24 earnings -- Alex Kimani over at oilprice --

Hess Corp. has posted an impressive second-quarter earnings report with its stake in prolific Guyana helping it exceed estimates. Hess reported Q2 2024 non-GAAP EPS of $2.62, beating the Wall Street consensus by $0.07 while revenue of $3.26B was good for a robust 40.5% Y/Y growth although it missed the consensus by $30M.

The company saw a large increase in profits: Q2 net income was $757 million, or $2.46 per share, compared with net income of $119 million, or $0.39 per share for Q2 2023 while adjusted net income clocked in at $809 million, or $2.62 per share, compared with $201 million, or $0.65 per share, in the second quarter of 2023.

Hess's production increased 27.6% to 494,000 barrels of oil and gas per day (boepd), thanks in large part to a 75% year-over-year increase in Guyana to 192,000 bpd, up from 110,000 boepd in the prior-year quarter.

The company’s Bakken shale output was 212,000 boepd, up 17% from 181,000 boepd in the second quarter of 2023. Hess, however, reported it expects a fall in current-quarter production due to planned downtime in Guyana and Southeast Asia.

Hess owns a 30% stake in the Guyana oilfield while Exxon Mobil Corp. and China’s CNOOC own 45% and 25% stakes, respectively.

Meanwhile, messy, messy, messy: 

Back in May, Hess shareholders signed off on its proposed $53B merger with Chevron Corp. despite the deal being challenged by Exxon Mobil Corp. .

Exxon is trying to stop the merger with the future of the deal resting on whether the transaction would involve a change of control of Hess' Guyana subsidiary. Exxon claims Hess should have first given it the opportunity to purchase its stake in the prized Guyana asset, and that Chevron structured the deal in a way to bypass Exxon’s right of first refusal if it’s triggered by a change of control in Guyana.

Market caps:

• XOM: $540 billion
• CVX: $300 billion
• HES: $50 billion

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Hess
Earnings, 2Q24

Link here.