Locator: 47990ECON.
Personal investing:
- will add to my position in NVDA today. By rule, and by special circumstances. No recommendation.
- initiated position in ING. Dividend. Diversifies out of energy, tech. No recommendation.
- initiated position in GLW. Replaced another tech stock (SNOW) in the portfolio. Unlike SNOW which was a short-term play, GLW will likely be a long term holding. No recommendation.
- see disclaimers.
Talking heads still mis-using "stagflation."
- groceries: prices coming down quickly -- at least at the three stores at which I stop (Kroger, Tom Thumb, Walmart) -- but the prices cutting is not consistent.
- only one outlier right now: price of houses; and that's not going to change.
- car insurance? the big jump has already occurred; the "bar" has re-set to accommodate price of EV repair; cost of repairing luxury vehicles.
This is 1Q24, smallest since 2/22:
The good news: talking heads can't agree what this means. LOL.
GDPNow, 2Q24: 3.5%
Definition of a "soft landing." Two problems:
- I see no numbers; and,
- I see no timeline.
The first is not a real problem -- a "negative" GDP -- no matter how small two consecutive quarters = a "hard landing." However, each month without a "negative" GDP moves the goalposts another ten yards down the field. Pretty soon, the "soft landing/hard landing" goalpost in a Ft Worth, TX, high school stadium will be in a Dallas, TX, high school stadium.
I do believe someone has been talking about a hard landing since at least March, 2022 -- that's two years ago, and it looks like a negative GDP is not in the cards for at least one more quarter.
But this is what keeps me excited. If/when the Fed sees the risk of a "hard landing" and/or a "first reading" of a negative GDP in any quarter, the Fed has seven arrows in its quiver, each quiver representing 25 - 50 basis points.
I still see a Goldilocks economy for investors. When it comes to the Fed, it's binary:
- higher for longer: investors have learned to live with that; savers happy;
- first cut: it will all be psychological; will have no "real" effect -- just one cut will have no effect -- but the market will surge, all things being equal with that first cut; in fact, that "carrot" is probably what keeps the market more green than not.
**************************
Re-Posting
My favorite chart, link here:
When you see this chart, what's the first question you should ask? If you ask the right question, you will note that it's a "binary question." It has only two possible answers. I'll leave it at that.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.