Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- January 29, 2024

Locator: 46678B.

Three headlines over at oilprice this a.m. that caught my attention:

• spending on natural gas to top $1 trillion over next decade;
• Alaska's state-sponsored LG projects struggling to find investors;
• massive new Russian natural gas pipeline to China faces delays

Market comment: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.70.

Monday, January 29, 2024: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year
39726, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HD,
39153, conf, Hess, RS-F Armouur-156-92-1224-3,

Sunday, January 28, 2024: 51 for the month; 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year
39725, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HT,
39152, conf, Hess, RS-F Armour-156-92-1224H-2,
39050, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 3T,
39049, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 2B,

Saturday, January 27, 2024: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year
40041, conf,  CLR, Quale Federal 4-1H,
35367, conf, Enerplus, Possum 152-94-23CH-TF2,

RBN Eneergy: new LN export capacity upends Texas / Louisiana natural gas fundamentaals.

Big changes are coming to the new epicenter of the global LNG market: Texas and Louisiana. On top of the existing 12.5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity in the two states, another 11+ Bcf/d of additional capacity is planned by 2028. The good news is that the two major supply basins that will feed this LNG demand — the Permian and the Haynesville — will be growing, but unfortunately not quite as fast as LNG exports beyond 2024. And there’s another complication, namely that the two basins are hundreds of miles from the coastal LNG terminals, meaning that we’ll need to see lots of incremental pipeline capacity developed to move gas to the water. 

If we break it down further, looking at Texas and Louisiana separately, we see quite different fundamental dynamics. On the Louisiana side, LNG exports are set to rise faster than production in the state, while in Texas, the pace of production growth generally matches the combo of LNG and Mexico exports for a few years, but eventually lags behind as new LNG terminals come online, requiring the state to pull more gas in from Oklahoma or send less to Louisiana. These developments will drive highly dynamic market conditions, with flow shifts that will impact price differentials, the need for new pipeline infrastructure, and the gas sourcing strategies for LNG exporters.