That "Bull Case" For Oil Looking More And More Precarious -- Looks Like We'll Have To Wait Another Year -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45457WTI.

Re-posting from earlier this morning:

WTI: oh, boy! $78.51. 

Do folks remember how "oil bulls" told us during the entire first half off 2023, WTI was going to trend much higher in the second half, some saying as high as $100? Well, so far, we're trending lower. That's why I quit following "Josh" over at twitter. He became more and more irrelevant if not completely wrong. I can only take so much. Sort of like Jim Cramer over at CNBC. Yes, I know it's the summer doldrums and we just have to wait for October. [Later: Bloomberg is saying the very same thing. I'll post that later.]

Now, from Bloomberg in their early morning daily note.

Since the start of the year, oil watchers have widely predicted that prices would end 2023 on a high note. That forecast is looking more and more precarious.

After surging to a six-month high above $88 a barrel in London two weeks ago, the rally has fizzled out. On Wednesday, international benchmark Brent was trading below $83.

In theory, inventories should be depleting at the fastest clip in two years as China’s post-pandemic rebound and output cuts by OPEC+ tighten the market. But as analysts at Julius Baer Group Ltd. said this week: “The oil market is just about adequately supplied, and the much-awaited tightening is still pending.”

Debate has swayed in recent weeks on whether the market’s foil was supply or demand. The answer now appears to be both.

Consumption is under pressure as China, the world’s biggest oil importer, contends with crises ranging from youth unemployment to turmoil in its property and shadow banking sectors. A top executive suggests the nation’s fuel use may have maxed out for the year.

Also from Bloomberg: remember all that talk that China could hold back exports of rare metals needed for the EV sector. Chart of the day: