Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- December 7, 2022 -- A Day That Will Live In Infamy

D5S +2: late yesterday afternoon, link here --

• Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have halved in the past 48 hours.

Peter Zeihan today:

Unless you live under a rock, you've probably heard that Europe has placed a $60 price cap on Russian crude exports.

This is uncharted territory for EVERYONE, so I'm not here to predict how all this will play out. Instead, I want to lay out the matrix of factors that you should keep top of mind as this unfolds.

But the real fun is a "Red Pill" moment: The single global price for crude that we've all enjoyed for the last 85+ years...GONE. Meaning that global shipping becomes riskier and riskier by the day.

In terms of energy, we are well on our way to how things were in the 1930s. Exciting right?

Putin, Poland, and Abrams: two links --

• ZeroHedge: US approves sale of almost $4 billion in M1 Abrams tanks to Poland.
• Peter Zeihan: 

Apple: getting all the headlines late yesterday afternoon and will be a big story today but for most of us, it seems like really, really old news. Link here. 

When the news broke yesterday afternoon, TSM spiked from <$80 to $83.54. In pre-market trading this a.m., it appears TSM will shed 75 cents at the open.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $74.66. (D5S+12 = December 5th sanctions + 2 days)

Natural gas: $5.656.

Thursday, December 8, 2022: 19 for the month, 128 or the quarter,   672 for the year.
38895, conf, CLR, Bonney 10-3HSL1,
38851, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 5-18-19-158N-99W-MBH-LL,

Wednesday, December 7, 2022: 17 for the month, 126 for the quarter, 670 for the year.
38894, conf, CLR, Bonney 9-3H,
38850, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Fantuz 2-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38348, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H 5, 

RBN Energy: why did the frack spread collapse? And what's next?

Over the past nine months, the frac spread —a rough-cut measure of the value of extracting NGLs from raw gas at gas processing plants — has taken a terrifying plunge, from $9.82/MMBtu in early March to only $2.16/MMBtu on Monday.

Given that the frac spread is the differential between the price of natural gas and the weighted average price of a typical barrel of NGLs on a dollars-per-MMBtu basis, a 78% nosedive like that suggests that something is seriously out of whack, and that at least some market players are taking a real hit financially. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the frac spread, the drivers behind its recent freefall, and what it would take for gas processing margins to rebound.