Before we get started, for cocktail trivia tonight, there are about 56 "tanks" in a battalion.
- 125 "tank" battalions = about 7,000 "tanks"
- Russia has about 12,000 "tanks"
- the US has about 6,000 "tanks"
- Russia likely has more "tanks" on Ukraine's northern and eastern borders than the entire US Army "tank" inventory.
Two observations -- TODAY -- from the twitter accounts I follow:
- war: no one, here in in the US, absolutely no one, is concerned about Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine
- Putin knows that sanctions will wreak havoc on Europe, not Russia;
- the US is in "spectator-mode"
- as long as it stays among "Russians," this is not a NATO issue; it might be a European issue;
- one of two likely scenarios:
- Russia stops with Kiev and there is a East Ukraine / West Ukraine standoff
- Russian generals on the ground race to Lviv
- oil: some perceived anxiety that US becomes a net crude oil importer starting as early as this year
- EIA suggests that:
- US net crude oil: about 4 million bopd net export
- US new petroleum products: about 4 million bpd net imports
- US net trade (oil out but refined products in): 0
- if I'm reading this correctly, US demand will be such that refiners will not keep up with US demand
- operators are currently operating at about 87% of their operable capacity
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Road to Mexico
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