Commentary -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 19, 2021

Apple: everyone suggests each MacBook iteration is simply evolution. Not this time: truly epic revolution. First definition of revolution: a forcible overthrow of a government or social order, in favor of a new system. "New" does not necessarily mean "something not seen before. A revolution could take us back to something we've experienced before. And that's exactly what Apple did with regard to the new MacBook Pro, either two models or four new models depending on perspective. But there was another Apple revolution: the chips. 

Normally, shares of AAPL fall during / immediately after the presentation. Not this time. AAPL shares gained significantly, perhaps not in absolute dollar value / percent but in trending / direction. 

Less than six hours after the event, delivery times for these new, expensive computers targeted for "pro" users, extended from one week to two to four weeks. And there is talk that folks who delay even a week or so will not be able to get a new MacBook Pro before Christmas. 

Supply problem or demand problem? 

I've only had one MacBook Pro over the years. They were introduced in 2006. I probably had mine for less than two years before I switched to the MacBook Air. I have absolutely no need for the MacBook Pro simply because I'm not a gamer. They are way too expensive, trending toward $2500 when a sub-$1000-MacBook Air more than meets my needs.

Supply problem or demand problem? A demand problem. I'm seriously thinking of getting a MacBook Pro. Seriously. That's how epic the revolution is. Tim Cook wasn't targeting the new MacBook Pro to the Apple masses. The target: the Apple "pro." If you don't believe me, check out their marketing tagline. 

But something happened on the way to the forum. All those folks like me who didn't want the "Pro" are taking a second look now that Tim has literally fixed everything Apple users complained about when the fourth-generation MacBook Pro was introduced in October, 2016.

The prices for the new MacBook Pro are in line with previous model-years.

Hey, by the way, what's different this time, 2021 vs 2016? People are really, really flush with cash. My favorite graph; I'm still waiting for the September, 2021, data to be released.

Energy crisis: everything leads back to coal, a subject no one really wants to discuss. Everyone knows that what's going on in coal right now suggests huge policy failures over the past decade. There are currently three energy crises and each has its own unique beginning.

The three energy crises:

• energy crisis in China, specifically, more broadly, Asia, to include India: coal
• energy crisis in the EU and the UK: renewable energy
• energy crisis in the US: political

China/coal: coal prices are going parabolic in China, with futures climbing 110% since September 1, 2021, to almost $300/tonne. Coal for prompt delivery in the physical market is much higher. To put it in context, Newcastle coal trades at $230/tonne. Link here. 

The rally is so spectacular that the thermal coal prices in China are nearing the price of oil. Meaasured in boe, Chinese coal futures are at $77/bbl, compared to WTI-Brent at $82-$85/bbl.

And then we have this idiot (name redacted): "China needs to build more wind turbines so they don't have to burn so much coal." Perhaps he/she was being sarcastically cynical or cynically sarcastic.

Winter: because WTI / Brent failed to move significantly higher on Monday, there was a collective sigh of relief that "we" are through the worse. 

There is a feeling that we have successfully managed to get through this crisis and things will soon be back to normal. 

Helllooooo. 

Winter started early in China this year, and it looks like it's colder than usual in London, also. 

This is mid-October. In the northern hemisphere is doesn't start getting cold until after Halloween. It doesn't start getting really cold until December. But folks seem to forget that frigid temperatures aren't seen until late January and all of February. We are hardly at the beginning of the heating season. It's almost predictable. As usual we will have some warming weather over the next few weeks which will further reinforce that "we've" somehow managed to muddle through the crisis, but if December doesn't bring "us" all back to reality, January and February certainly will. 

China / winter: northern China is seeing an early start to the winter heating season due to tfallign temperatures. This will boost demand, yada, yada, yada, sooner than expected...link here and direct to Platts here.

Gasoline prices in the US: I have no idea what to say about this. Resident Biden has clearly stated -- if one reads the twitter feeds -- that he wants to do to the oil and gas sector what Hillary did to the coal industry. "Everyone" seems to suggest that his administration has begun to panic thinking gasoline could hit $5 / gallon as an average for regular gasoline. My hunch: there are many in his administration who do not see any problem with $5-gasoline. Two things: from their perspective, $5-gasoline is very manageable from a macro-economic point of view; and, second, to cut to the chase, the boiling frog fable. 

Although Biden has said he has reached out to OPEC to increase production; there is absolutely no evidence that he has done so. When asked about that, the press secretary reads the same "white-paper reply" that she has read twelve times. That meeting Resident Biden had with US Big Oil? If anyone has the transcripts of his opening and closing remarks, I would like to see the links. Who even attended? I don't recall CNBC even reporting on this "summit."

Copper: the commodity no one seems to be talking about. From Bloomberg a few days ago, global copper inventories are dropping to "critical levels."   

From yesterday, "let me make sure everybody understands the copper situation: spot minus three months forward spread at LME now in panic mode as we run out of inventory... link here. LME? London Metal Exchange.

Covid: I wasn't going to write about this but then I was sent, from a reader, a very, very good scientific paper on the failure of "the vaccine." I can't disagree. Vaccinated populations seem to be doing no better than unvaccinated populations. Except older vaccinated people don't get as sick or die as often as older unvaccinated people, unless one has smoldering multiple myeloma and Parkinson's. We've talked about this before. The problem: this is no longer about science. That train left the station when Governor Cuomo -- remember him? -- said he would not let one person die of Covid under his watch. I don't think I'm paraphrasing that. I'm pretty sure he actually said that even as he returned those with Covid back to their nursing homes.

Optics: by the way, the optics of a young, virile, African-American, US Army soldier, fully vaccinated, dying of Covid seriously impacted the administration's admonishment for everyone to get vaccinated. After all, if a young, virile, African-American, US Army soldier, fully vaccinated dies of Covid why would I want to be vaccinated with a dangerous drug that isn't even a vaccine. It was interesting to watch CNBC talking heads squirm yesterday morning when the death was announced. Has Bill Maher addressed this yet?