Idle Thoughts Regarding The Bakken And Shale In 2021 -- February 28, 2021

This might be one of the most interesting years for the Bakken in quite some time.

• across the board, operators in the Bakken say they are going to grow free cash flow; not grow production;
• analysts suggest WTI will finish the year at $75; some suggest triple digit (hope springs eternal);
• active rigs in the Bakken have bottomed out at 15 and remained there for quite some time;
• there weren't many deals in the Bakken in 2020
• Saudi, OPEC+, Russia: seem confused about what to do next
• some analysts suggest supply won't meet demand as we come out of the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns
  
• the future of the DAPL?
• middle Bakken permits still appear to be about 3:1 vs first bench;
  

So, some questions:

• more mergers, acquisitions, deals in the Bakken in 2021?
• will weget a chance to see if the Bakken can be a swing producer -- if demand exceeds supply will the Bakken surprise?
• will we get a chance to see how Bakken operators manage their assets?
• with minimal new drilling; some increase in fracking; will this impact production?
• will we see change in that 3:1 ratio (new permits, middle Bakken vs first bench)?
• will there be enough changes in the Bakken to justify a move to "Bakken 5.0"?
• will average production trend toward 100 bbls/day/well (we got there during the boom; dropped to the low 70s; now about 78, if I recall correctly.
  

On another note: earlier the question was asked -- has the King had enough of MBS? It's a "fun" question to ask, but there's no way MBS is not the next King of Saudi Arabia. If MBS suddenly disappears, it will make England's War of Roses look like child's play. But we can dream, can't we?

Most surprising development in 2020:

• increased interest in the Powder River Basin
• both EOG and CLR made news in the PRB