"WTI Beatdown" at this link, at the sidebar at the right.
Historical monthly oil production statistics: link here. Have we bottomed?
See also, Director's Cut, June, 2020, data.
EIA dashboards:
- EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf
Bakken:
Eagle Ford:
Permian:
With oil in the low $40s, rig counts down by ~80%, and Bankruptcies by the bushel basket full, drilling is only happening in the sweetest of the sweet spots with pipelines nearby. No shortage of shale oil in the $50s, but hovering near $40 per there is.
ReplyDeletebbl
Agree completely, but as I've said many, many times, as soon as I see "rig counts" in any discussion of shale, my eyes glaze over (or roll). In the Bakken, rig counts don't matter; it's the number of frack spreads; the number of monthly well completions, etc., that matter now.
DeleteThey can drill a Bakken well in a week. In the early days of the Bakken it took them well over a month, sometimes 60 days. A few dozen rigs in the Bakken can easily do now what a hundred rigs used to do.
So, yes, drilling in the Bakken is being done in the best spots which one gathers by watching the daily activity reports, but it should be noted, I have not seen an IP reported in months (?) in the Bakken. Some of this is artificial -- many of the wells have indeed been completed, but not reported. Eventually, the paperwork will catch up with reality but the fact remains, I've not seen an IP reported in a long, long time. (There may be exceptions that I've forgotten.) I'm talking about wells that come off the confidential list. Yes, there are a few DUCs being reported (but rare).
By the way, once the boom is over (which in the case of the Bakken, was over several years ago) and has moved into the "manufacturing" stage why wouldn't one expect companies to drill in best spots? (Best spots defined by price / margins / return on investment / etc.)
In the Bakken there were 899 DUCs reported in the most recent Director's Cut -- that's likely more wells than will be drilled in the Bakken all year:
http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2018/07/update-on-ducs-july-14-2018.html
Finally, with regard to bankruptcies, I am aware of two, maybe three bankruptcies in the Bakken: Whiting and Bruin. There may be others, but certainly not more than a handful of scores of operators in the Bakken. I'm not aware of more than ten, maybe only five or so, operators that have filed for bankruptcy to date.
One last thought, this is a huge scientific experiment to see how the "halo" effect affects overall production.
Finally: don't construe any of this to be related to investing in energy in general, or the Bakken specifically. I wouldn't recommend that anyone invest in energy. Nor would I necessarily recommend anyone not to invest in investing. This is not an investment site. It is to help me better understand the Bakken, not to be a "better" investor.
In a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors.