Jobs -- March 8, 2019

 
Updates

Later, 9:13 a.m. Central Time: market not impressed. Still down 171 points in early trading and the market has been down all week. 

Later, 9:06 a.m. Central Time: the "experts" were off by a factor of 10. The consensus: 200,000 jobs added in February. The number came in at 20,000. Look at the forecasts by six folks on CNBC just before the numbers came out: this is an incredibly good example of group think. Rick Santelli was the worst.

Later, 9:06 a.m. Central Time: record number of Americans employed -- 156,949,000 -- making America great. Link here. Mainstream media unlikely to report it. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, down from 4% a month earlier. But everyone is talking about the biggest U6 drop in history. The unemployment rate for Hispanics has never been this low. But the unemployment rate for African-American increased by two-tenths of a point in February. The U6 rate: more encompassing unemployment rate that counts discouraged workers as well as those holding jobs part time for economic reasons, often called the "real" unemployment rate, plunged to 7.3 percent in February from 8.1 percent in January. On a percentage basis, that's the biggest drop in U6 rate in history -- I believe I heard.

Original Post

Jobs: good, bad, indifferent --actual -- 20,000, 3.8%

• forecast
• 210,000, 3.8
• 200,000, 3.9
• 195,000, 3.5
• 200,000, 3.9 
• 189,000, private jobs only, Steve Liesman, doesn't do govt numbers,
• 239,000, won't give rate, Rick Santelli

Dow, futures:

• before February jobs number is released: down 130 points
• after Februaryjobs number is released: down 200 points; now moving down 220 points

Reaction on CNBC to jobs report:

• 20,000 vs 200,000
• "don't read too much into one number
• unemployment number remains low
• I wouldn't panic
• analysts "way off"
• Steve Liesman: "lots of stuff gives me questions about the number"
• weather
• winter storms
• construction numbers fell off the cliff
• government shutdown -- during this period; confusing 
• 63.2% participation rate remains unchanged 
• U6: huge drop; largest drop on record; U6 number is "pretty amazing"
• housing starts up 18.6% vs 9.5% estimate
• bottom line: talking heads very, very positive about the number; not concerned;