The More Things (Seem To) Change, The More They Stay The Same -- January 23, 2017

I assume I've seen this presentation before, but I honestly don't recall. A reader sent me the link this morning, and I went through it fairly quickly.

This is the annual energy forecast put out by BP every year; this one was published 2016, and takes the forecast through 2016.

It is important when growing through the comments and the graphics to pay special attention to the "gotchas":

• rate of growth (positive or negative)
• share of each component of energy
• absolute amount of energy provided by each component

The presentation seems to lean heavily on "rate of growth" and "changes in patterns of growth." This is very, very different from absolute amounts being used.

When it comes to energy, this appears to be the bottom line: between now (2014) and then (2035) the size of the (energy) pie will have grown substantially. The relative sizes of the various slices (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, renewable, hydro) will change, but even there, the relative sizes won't change much. Case in point: between 2014 and 2035, the slice of coal will go from 30% of the full (energy) pie to 25%. Someone one a diet would hardly notice; but for the dieter, it's actually "worse" in 2035 than 2014 because the size of the pie (and the size of the slice) will be bigger. 

Some graphics that jumped out at me:

War on coal: after all this talk about the "war on coal" the relative size of the "coal slice" will go from 30% to 25% -- hardly noticeable in the real world, and that is over the course of 20 years. We'll see how big the entire (energy) pie is in 2035 compared to 2014 later. First the graph:

Also, note that almost nothing else changes:

• oil goes from 32% to 29% over 20 years; hardly perceptible in the size of the slice
• natural gas increases slightly but the change in the size of the slice will hardly be seen
• nuclear: anyone that can predict 4% vs 5% over 20 years has a pretty good crystal ball
• hydro: to maintain that size slice, it will have to grow
• renewables: triples, but remains inconsequential; the bigger problem is the strain renewables will place on the grid; renewable energy will need to be backed up by natural gas or coal

Growth in energy relative to growth in population: again, referring to the graph above. If I read the graph correctly,

• total energy ("primary energy"): will grow 34% between 2014 and 2035
• however, the global population will "only" increase by 21" 

And, of course, that makes sense. The population growth will be greater in those countries / continents (China, Africa) where energy use per capita will increase, greatly off-setting energy savings in more developed countries / regions (US, EU).

The Size of the (Energy) Pie

This is a good example of watching out for the "gotcha's." The right side of the graphic suggests that China's energy consumption will decrease. No. This is rate of growth, consistent with a maturing country. I would pretty much ignore the right side of the graphic.

The left side of the graphic shows how significantly the size of the (energy) pie grows. In 2014, we're sitting at about 13 billion toe; by 2035, it increases to about 17 billion toe. Back-of-the-envelope:

• coal, at 30% of 13 billioin toe = 3.9
• coal, at 25% of 17 billion toe = 4.25

So, although the coal slice of the (energy) pie gets smaller as a percent, it increases in size in absolute terms.

Something else caught my eye: India is "subsumed" (I assume) in the "yellow" (racist, unintentional) "Other Asia." The BP folks are a whole lot smarter than I am, but to not separate out India on this graph seems a bit interesting.

Global vehicle fleet:

The graph speaks for itself:

The Fallacy of Crystal Balls: this is the graph that interested me most. No comment (for now).

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A Note to the Granddaughters

We have three granddaughters, ages 13, 10, and 2 1/2.

We have been primarily responsible for getting them to their school and non-school events, including:

• competitive swimming
• gymnastics
• water polo
• field soccer (outdoor)
• futsal (indoor soccer — “arena football”)
• band practices
• track events

The first couple of years were in Charleston, South Carolina. The next four years were in the Boston, MA, area. The last three years (now going on our fourth year) were in the DFW (Dallas-Ft Worth-Grapevine) area.

The number of miles we have put on four or five different automobiles across the southeast, the northeast, and now the south, is not something I would want to know, but having said that, I wish I had kept a 3 x 5 index card on each event. It would have been a stack of memorabilia surpassed in size and importance only by the world-record ball of twine located somewhere in the midwest.

For anyone else, I would have complained about all the driving and all the things I have missed (mostly NFL football games and NASCAR) but for the granddaughters, I have never complained.

One of the benefits of all this driving: I have really, really learned the “geography” of the locations we have lived. I don’t have a smart phone and I don’t have GPS in the car, so I study the map very, very well before I leave. About three years ago when we first arrived in this area, I was taking Olivia to soccer training. I was running late, it was dark, I was getting lost. As we neared the field, I asked Olivia if this was the right location, if it looked familiar to her. She said she did not know. She said it was my job to get her where she needed to be; it was her job to play soccer. She was seven years old at the time; not much has changed.

I say all that to say this: it is absolutely amazing all the sports venues available in the DFW area.

After sixty years of being involved in sports in one way or the other, around the world (Turkey, Germany, England, north Africa) I can say I have seen a lot of sports venues, and without question none compare to what I have seen in the DFW area.

The number of facilities seem to never end, and in general they are huge. This morning it’s a futsal game in north Carrollton on I-35E. This afternoon it will be Olympic Program Development training in south Carrollton on I-35E.

Meanwhile, the oldest granddaughter will be at water polo practice in a huge natatorium in Southlake.

And the youngest, little Sophia will be at soccer practice in yet another large sports complex, also in Southlake.  

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Final Score
2 -1, we were behind, with 37 seconds to play.

Olivia on the assist, teammate scores, and the game ends tied, 2 - 2. An incredible game. In this league, a tie is almost as good as a win, especially when coming from behind with only 30-some seconds left on the clock.

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Futsal

Now a little grandfatherly bragging.

As noted above, futsal is to field soccer as arena football is to American (outdoor) football. Unlike field soccer where it is 8 v 8 (plus the goalies), futsal is 4 v 4 (plus the goalies). In a sense it seems a bit faster-paced (smaller field of play; no throw-ins (“kick-ins” instead). [In some futsal arenas where the walls define the playing area, there is no out-of-bounds, and therefore no throw-ins/kick-ins, and much faster paced.

Olivia appears to have about eight team members, five on the court, three on the bench. Olivia has played most of the game, just now coming out. From my vantage point, she seems to be as good as any, perhaps better than most. She is “playing up” (she is the only one her team one year younger than the “official” age for this group). She was specifically “recruited” to play with this older team.

With eight minutes left in regulation time (50-minute games), the game is tied 1 - 1 (see final score above). This is FC Dallas, (football club Dallas) and some of these girls will move up through the farm system to play for a professional team (such as FC Dallas), some of whom will play college soccer and some of whom we will see on US Olympic team in eight years.