Short Update From Mr Hofmeister -- Peak Lite, Peak Oil, and The Long Recession

Over at The Oil Drum.

In a nutshell, we all know that peak oil is a phenomenon in which global oil production begins an irreversible decline, and the shortages that ensue drive global oil prices very high and cause widespread hardship. However, as I began to see spare global oil production capacity erode away over the past decade, I began to ask myself how that situation was really distinct from peak oil. Technically the difference is that production can continue to grow in that scenario, but if demand growth is higher than production growth, for practical purposes you have a situation that mimics peak oil. I referred to this situation as peak lite.

“And so what I actually anticipate is that even with the shale oil of North America, the Canadian oil sands, the bare beginnings of Arctic development, with Brazil coming in on time, which is late in the decade, and the other kinds of basin development that are taking place, I am not sure that in this decade supply will keep up with demand. And I anticipate shortages, gas lines — at any price — because of the growing demand, without alternative fuel technologies yet grabbing hold and picking up some of that demand.”

When do they anticipate significant challenges -- as soon as the mid-point of this decade: 2015.