Saudi Arabia has gone on the offensive against Iran to protect its interests. Its involvement in Syria is the first battle in what is going to be a long conflict that will know no frontiers nor limits.Go to the link for update on the Shia Crescent.
The Saudis are convinced that Iran is directing the protests and fear that the problems will spill over the 25-kilometer long COSWAY into oil rich Al-Qatif, where the bulk of the Saudi Arabia's Shia are concentrated. So far, the Saudis have not had to deal with demonstrations as serious as those in Bahrain, but success there could encourage the protestors to become more violent.
The customary manner of dealing with a problem by the patriarchal regime is to bury it in money. King Abdullah announced at the height of the Arab Spring that he was increasing the national budget by $130 billion to be spent over the coming five years. Government salaries and the minimum wage were raised. New housing and other benefits are to be provided. At the same time, he plans to expand the security forces by 60,000 men.
Some random data points:
- Saudi Arabia increased spending on its citizens: a) it will never be enough; b) religious zealots are not interested in money; and, c) those two (a) and (b) are not connected.
- Muslim Brotherhood is "taking over all" of Egypt
- Muslim Brotherhood is anchored in the Sunnah (Sunnis)
- Saudi state religion: Sunni; the Shia sizeable minority
- Egypt is going to need cash, and a lot of it, to keep the revolution going
This is not an arab spring this is a Muslim arb spring or maybe more specific a Shia Muslim spring. Christian Arabs are getting nothing out of this and most are losing more for it though they occupied most of these territories for 500 years before Muhammed even existed.
ReplyDeleteThat's an extremely good point. The Mideast has entered into a new phase, a huge new phase. It is just the beginning. There are no indications it can be checked. It appears analogous to the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 in which the Russian economy was set back 50 years.
ReplyDeleteAs just one example, 50% of the Mideast population, perhaps the most important half, the women, will be disenfranchised. If that doesn't make sense, read: "What Went Wrong," by Bernard Lewis, perhaps the best book on this subject.
The Muslim Spring will set back "advances" in the Mideast for at least 50 years. If one agrees that the US was a hyper-power at this time, as opposed to just a super-power, there will be essays written about the complicity of the US in the success of the Muslim Spring. That can be debated.
If one's world view is that the US was complicit, one must then ask who was president during this period of time. Of all US presidents, it is remarkable how little we really know about the current president, how many gaps there are in his life between birth and 30 years of age: where he was, who raised him, who his friends were, etc., etc. My hunch is that once the political correctness runs its course and historians write about his period fifty years from now, it will all be very clear.
There was no Yalta Conference and no "photo op" of those masterminding Muslim Spring, but eventually someone will put the story together. It will not be written for thirty or forty years, if that soon.
You have made a very good point: the "spin" was to call this "Arab Spring." In fact, it was, as you noted, "Muslim Spring."