Friday, April 13, 2012

Essay: Natural Gas or Electric Vehicles -- Rigzone

Link here to Rigzone.com.

CNG:
Drawbacks to CNG vehicles include the availability of fueling stations. The natural gas filling stations that are available in the U.S. tend to be concentrated in areas where commercial fleets of CNG vehicles exist; buses and trucks are the biggest market for CNG today.

Additionally, CNG cars also have less power than gasoline-fueled cars, said Rinek, who road tested a 2012 Honda Civic CNG vehicle earlier this year and was underwhelmed by its performance. After-market enhancements to boost power on CNG cars are costly, and a fact with which most drivers will have to learn to live.
Electric:
However, the limited driving range of electric powered cars – with drivers lucky to get 100 miles between stops at charging stations -- has been a deterrent to their widespread adoption in the U.S. market. As a result, EVs ended up being relegated to a second or third urban vehicle used for short trips, Rinek commented.

The limited range of electric vehicles and the lengthy time required to recharge an electric car's batteries are two big Achilles heels for EV vehicles, said Michael Gorton, an engineer, physicist, lawyer and power systems engineer who writes and speaks on topics related to energy, alternative vehicles and solar power finance.

My hunch, in the United States in  2030: we will see three markets. The vast majority of miles driven in the US will be on CNG. Commercial trucking will make up the bulk of CNG miles driven cross country along CNG corridors. Yuppies, millennials, and post-millennials packing the urban centers will routinely drive CNG mid-size and compacts, with rare special trips (vacations?) in conventional or hybrids. This doesn't mean the vast majority of private automobiles will be CNG, but 75% of miles logged in this country will be on CNG.

Electric vehicles, hybrids, and conventional (gasoline/diesel) will share the rest of the market space, perhaps 30 percent. The conventional will predominate in fly-over country, whereas EVs and hybrids will outpace the conventional on the east and west coasts.