See first post on my initial observations in the Bakken, summer, 2011. This continues my observations.
First, this is the best time of the year in western North Dakota. The weather is wonderful; if the US Air Force has sprayed the mosquitoes larvae, it's great to be outside.
Second, the number one story remains affordable housing. After lots of driving around, specifically looking at all the construction that is going on, I am convinced that the housing situation will be resolved by the end of 2013. If the housing situation remains a problem after 2013, folks have seriously underestimated how huge the Bakken is going to be.
Before the boom, there were probably about 3,000 houses in Williston. The Kiewit subdivision alone will add about 2,000 more units, if completed. There are probably another several hundred or so units that have gone up in the last year or so (apartment units, duplexes, single family homes, etc). Again, these are just wild estimations. My hunch is that the vast majority of young men living in the man-camps will elect not to buy homes here in Williston; they will work here, but return to their own home elsewhere outside of North Dakota. I would not be a bit surprised if there is actually a slight excess of single family homes in 2014 based on the pace at which they are building now.
Third, it will be interesting to see if oil companies decide to frack during the winter or postpone until the spring. Even under the best of circumstances, the numbers suggest that fracking cannot keep up with drilling for the next six to twelve months. If oil companies do not frack during the winter, the backlog in the spring will be significant.
