Oil Falls To "Near" $104

That's the morning headline. Price is said to have fallen "amid a mixed US oil supply report."

Futures show oil is down 25 cents to $104.77.

Call me crazy, but am I the only one that can't get too excited about "oil is down 25 cents" when it's trading above $100?

If by chance, oil hits $104.78 will we see a headline that says "Oil Spikes, Closing in On $105"?

Meanwhile folks continue to talk about "no-fly zone" on Libya which would require strikes on air defense systems, and some folks "think" that would be a declaration of war. Well, duh.

[Update: at 6:00 a.m., as CNBC's morning show came on, the price of WTI had spiked 13 cents and was above $105. It has dropped back, now down 2 cents at an even $105. 6:53 a.m. For those interested.]

I  have always doubted Saudi had much spare capacity, and that was well before recent events. I was definitely in the minority. Well, today we are starting to see that others agree. Prior to "the Libya thing," Saudi had already quietly increased production by 700,000 bopd, and any more increase is unlikely. Production from new fields is probably going to about match production from declining fields.

The price of oil continues to go up not because "we're" worried about "a day of rage" in Saudi Arabia but because a) there is increasing doubt that Saudi can increase productivity; and, b) there is no Plan B.