Well done, Mr Zeits.
Over at SeekingAlpha:
- macro models are finally catching up with unconventional oil
realities: U.S. shales are competitive at low oil prices and volumes
grew much faster in 2017 than many skeptics had anticipated
- in
recognition of the operational trends, in the last three months alone,
the EIA's STEO forecast for U.S. production was revised higher three
times
- the production estimate for Q4 2018 was increased by a staggering 1.0 million barrels per day
- 2hile
the agency's 2018 estimates for U.S. production are now not
unreasonable, the 2019 projections are puzzling and face the risk of
major upward revisions
With regard to the last bullet (
the 2019 projections are puzzling and face the risk of
major upward revisions), two comments:
- bureaucracies are by their very nature, very conservative; they would rather be wrong on the low side than the high side
- shale production is very, very sensitive to price swings and consumer demand
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