Company presentation, 2011 CAPEX, 2010 Summary, January, 2011.
Investopedia update, January 3, 2011.
Robust 2011 Outlook; December 18, 2010.
IPO
IPO: $350 million. Prospectus at time of IPO. - Price per share and date of IPO yet to be announced.
- How much ya wanna bet it will be over-subscribed?
*****
Ramblings Before the IPO Was Announced
My Thoughts
Ramblings Before the IPO Was Announced
My Thoughts
September 30, 2010: Focus on Oasis as an investment.
The Form S-1, March 4, 2010. Page 58 may be the most informative. Be sure to read the small print.
The small print is where I think the "money will be." The big print: the number of wells are the initial Bakken (formation) wells on 1280-acre spacing. The small print: the net acreage does not include infill wells and does not include Three Forks Sanish. In other words: the big print allows the company to keep drilling, to remain solvent; the small print provides the upside potential. Generally, small print means "bad news"; in this case, the small print is good news.Four companies that are pure play in the Bakken and can be compared head-to-head:
KOG (Kodiak Oil and Gas)
NOG (Northern Oil and Gas)
OASIS
AEZ (American Energy)[Sold to Hess in 2010]
Data for KOG and NOG is available.NOG is a "$14 stock." 40 million shares outstanding (rounded)
Data for AEZ not yet available; American Energy recently announced it will sell all Wyoming assets (Powder River Basin) for approximately $44 million and become a Bakken pure play company.
KOG is a "$3 stock." 120 million shares outstanding (rounded)
My back of the envelope calculations suggest a "fair" IPO based on NOG and KOG would be 30 million shares at $12/share. That seems high -- a "$12 share" company so they might have to go to 60 million shares for $6.00/share.
If a "better buy" than 60 million shares for $6.00/share, it might be an interesting play.
And don't forget: it only takes one monster well to be a "game-changer" for these small companies.
