Company presentation, 2011 CAPEX, 2010 Summary, January, 2011.
Investopedia update, January 3, 2011.
Robust 2011 Outlook; December 18, 2010.
IPO
IPO: $350 million. Prospectus at time of IPO. - Price per share and date of IPO yet to be announced.
- How much ya wanna bet it will be over-subscribed?
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Ramblings Before the IPO Was Announced
My Thoughts
Ramblings Before the IPO Was Announced
My Thoughts
September 30, 2010: Focus on Oasis as an investment.
The Form S-1, March 4, 2010. Page 58 may be the most informative. Be sure to read the small print.
The small print is where I think the "money will be." The big print: the number of wells are the initial Bakken (formation) wells on 1280-acre spacing. The small print: the net acreage does not include infill wells and does not include Three Forks Sanish. In other words: the big print allows the company to keep drilling, to remain solvent; the small print provides the upside potential. Generally, small print means "bad news"; in this case, the small print is good news.Four companies that are pure play in the Bakken and can be compared head-to-head:
KOG (Kodiak Oil and Gas)
NOG (Northern Oil and Gas)
OASIS
AEZ (American Energy)[Sold to Hess in 2010]
Data for KOG and NOG is available.NOG is a "$14 stock." 40 million shares outstanding (rounded)
Data for AEZ not yet available; American Energy recently announced it will sell all Wyoming assets (Powder River Basin) for approximately $44 million and become a Bakken pure play company.
KOG is a "$3 stock." 120 million shares outstanding (rounded)
My back of the envelope calculations suggest a "fair" IPO based on NOG and KOG would be 30 million shares at $12/share. That seems high -- a "$12 share" company so they might have to go to 60 million shares for $6.00/share.
If a "better buy" than 60 million shares for $6.00/share, it might be an interesting play.
And don't forget: it only takes one monster well to be a "game-changer" for these small companies.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteAny changes to this estimate with the recent rise of NOG to 16.70 & KOG to $3.50?
I do not know the SEC rules on an IPO. I would assume if the company going public said they planned to raise "X" dollars, they will still offer a pre-determined number of shares for a certain price. That's why they have to submit their plans to the SEC in advance.
ReplyDeleteBut then the market takes over, and in this case, the bids will come in much higher than originally priced, assuming price of oil stays at this level and shows signs of staying there.
Anyone who can get in on the IPO should do very, very well. I bet if you call your broker Monday, you may have difficulty "reserving" shares in Oasis to be bought. Something tells me they have all been reserved to go to the underwriter's biggest and most loyal customers. Your broker will take your order and execute it in the order that he gets it, I assume, but I really don't know how these things work.
(By the way, I invest for the long term, am not a trader, and have probably not done as well as I could have if I had paid more attention to the market over the years. I'm pretty conservative when it comes to investing.)
I don't know if you noticed, but it's being reported today that Chavez (Venezuela) and Putin (Russia) have signed a deal for Russia to have access to 1/5 of Venezuela's largest oil field, the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt. The US found and developed this field; and now the Russians have access to it. I don't see how this news, over the weekend, will do anything but keep the price of oil high.