Locator: 50023BLIZZARD.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., suggests that "snow" can cause ADHD. He might have mixed up "snow" for "snow. Link here.
More on RFK, Jr.: link here.
Links everywhere.
Locator: 50022IRAN.
Locator: 50021BLACKSWANS.
Focus, link here: black swans.
Updates
Later, 2:06 p.m. Central time: on January 30, 2026, I asked whether Satya Nadella's job was on the line. It would take a lot for the board to remove Nadella and I don't think his job is on the line, but once your business model -- a subscription model -- comes into question, and your most visible product -- Copilot-- appears not to be a hit among consumers, a CEO has a lot of headwinds to weather.
Original Post
AI investing:
AI prompt: AI investing. Somehow analysts suggest AI eliminates need for security software companies. Is that why software companies plummeted in the market this last week?
Reply:
The bigger question has become: is AI going to be a much bigger "disruptor" than previously "believed"?
Another question: does a "shoot first, ask questions later," offer some interesting investing opportunities?
By the way, here's a huge counter-argument:
But I think there was more to it that that.
AI prompt: Per your earlier reply, the significant decline in software and cybersecurity stocks around early-to-mid February 2026 was largely driven by investor panic over the disruptive potential of Artificial Intelligence. Separate from that, I believe, was the cocern investors have regarding Microsoft's 1) subscription model; and, 2) its poorly accepted Copilot. Your thoughts?
Reply (and it is a long reply):
AI prompt: And finally, one last question along this line: it appears to me that agentic AI may be more disruptive than previously thought. Not too long ago, the question was whether AI / agentic AI is a "bubble"? Now it appears that not only is AI / agentic AI NOT a bubble but it may be much more disruptive than previously "believed." Again, your thoughts. Looking for an AI inference reply.
Response: after three attempts to get a narrative reply from Google, I gave up. Google only provided links to articles, the old Google search method. These were the first two hits:
Locator: 50020DIV.
Will increase dividend from $3.43 (annual) to $4.26, payable May 5, 2026.
€3.62 = $4.26 (February 21, 2026).
$4.26 from $3.43 = 24% increase in its annual dividend?
US LNG export terminals status 2025 - 2026:
From November, 2025:
Today, update, February 21, 2026:
Locator: 50019IRAN.
An earlier note: February 18, 2025.
Now, my hunch:
The only thing I can advise: check in on Fox News every four hours. More often as the situation changes, but right now? Every four hours. Remember:
One may want to google: has any president announced major hostilities while giving the SOTU address?
The most boring story right now: tariffs.
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An F-16 Interlude
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The Lancer B-1
Locator: 50018B.
Bakken, middle Three Forks, second bench, link here.
Bakken, middle Three Forks, second bench, link here.
WTI: $66.48.
Active rigs: 24.
Five new permits, #42724 - #42728, inclusive (two were SWD wells and not included below:
Locator: 50017B.
The quick connects:
Locator: 50016FLU.
Expectations: we should start seeing more evidence of the second wave, but it will be less severe than last season; similar to earlier seasons.
So, let's go to the data.
Influenza positive tests reported to CDC by clinical laboratories:
This is the section that I'm most interested in:
By subtype:
Percentage of outpatient visits for respiratory illness:
The map:
By age, emergency department visits with influenza diagnosis:
Associated hospital admissions: way, way, way down. At its peak, 14%; now 2% and dropping like a rock.
Measles: on another not, seems to be burning itself out. South Carolina and Utah were the outliers.
The vaccine appears to "work."
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Tonight's Movie Night
Sinatra In Palm Springs: The Place He Called Home, Frank Documentary, YouTube
I've watched this movie/documentary once before. Vaguely remember it. Eager to watch it again tonight.
Brings back a lot of memories. It's amazing how much "stuff" I did during my four years in southern California and then three years in what they call "northern California," though it was only halfway up the coast -- San Francisco Bay area and east to Reno. Wow, such incredible memories. I lived two lifetimes, maybe three lifetimes in southern California -- from central LA, to west LA, all the way to Las Vegas, and all the way east to Palm Springs. Had I not had an Air Force commitment, it's very likely I would have lived there all my life. My roommate born and raised in San Bernardino, school in central Los Angeles, ended up in "the valley," and that's where he and his wife, who he met in school, still live.
He was older than I by about four years, I suppose, and his wife, could have been another five to six years older than he, so they would be a bit older than I, now. I'm not thinking in terms of years but rather in terms of mental and physical health.
I was born to live an itinerant life, moving every two to four years. Four years, college, South Dakota; then four years, Los Angeles University of Southern California - Los Angeles County Hospital; then three years in the San Francisco Bay area. And it never ended, that itinerant lifestyle for thirty years.
I can't recall how many times I've been to Palm Springs. I remember only one time when I was driving cross country, but I have vague memories of having been there at least once before.
Tamarisk Country Club -- the "Jewish" country club. Because of Thunderbird Country Club -- the folks that started Tamarisk developed that golf course because they were not allowed to golf at Thunderbird. Tamarisk was an "open" club. One of the founders, Harpo Marx. First pro -- Ben Hogan -- was brought in to sell memberships. The country club was named after the tamarisk shrubs and trees that dot the desert landscape. These plants are known for their resilience and ability to withstand harsh desert weather conditions.
The Coachella Valley, located ~107 miles east of Los Angeles in Riverside County, is a premier Southern California desert destination known for its year-round sunshine, mid-century modern architecture, luxury spas, and golf courses. Palm Springs is the region's largest city, serving as a hub for dining, culture, and events like Modernism Week. The valley includes cities like Palm Desert, Indio, and La Quinta, surrounded by the San Jacinto, Santa Rosa, and San Bernardino mountains.
The map:
Twenynine Palms to the northeast. Can you imagine?
According to Google, one can drive from Palm Springs to the Pacific Ocean at Santa Monica in two hours seven minutes.
Locator: 50014TARIFFS.
Locator: 50014SCOTUS.
Updates
Later, at the close: we all remember how we hated the president literally picking winners and losers with the seemingly arbitrary decisions with regard to tariffs. This is 1000% a political decision. If you do the math, at least 75% of investors are happy with this decision by SCOTUS. And it easily could have been a 7 - 2 decision.
Later, 2:30 p.m. ET: in a very volatile session stocks are moving up again.
Later, 12:26 a.m. ET: market is taking back everything -- Trump played the tariffs issue perfectly. He was smart to have checked the "wrong box," Judge K's words, not mine, but I agree. The risk was that had he checked another box, he might have created a constitutional crisis. All other tariff options remain in place but it gives companies like Apple a lot of breathing room. My hunch is that this SCOTUS decision will make his Iran/military strike easier. (And sooner.)
Later, 11:20 a.m. ET; one hour twenty minutes after SCOTUS released its ruling: Sara Eisen, of the various talking heads on CNBC, seems to be the most knowledgeable and articulate. Carl Q must be elated but he would never show his hand on network television. He does that on x and Bluesky.
Original Post
170 pages.
CNBC won't release any "comments" until they've gone through it line-by-line. [Less than two minutes later, CNBC says SCOTUS struck down Trump’s tariffs.]
Evan: Trump's tariffs struck down. [Scooped CNBC by about one minute.]
What's the market doing:
SCOTUS:
The court ruled against Trump can't use a specific act ... but there are so many other avenues ... bottom line:
At the end of the day -- the court has threaded the needle. I'm impressed.
My wife will be thrilled: political.
Me? I'm thrilled: portfolio.
But by the end of the day, those early gains will all be "lost."
Again, it's all going to be political. Bottom line for me: again, US Congress failed by not being specific .... left the door open for SCOTUS to make this ruling.
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John Maynard Keynes
This appears to be accurate based on all I've read recently with regard to John Maynard Keynes, from Google Gemini:
It is more accurate to say that Keynes was a pragmatist rather than a dogmatic global free trader. He believed in free trade when it served economic growth, but he was willing to support protectionism or managed trade when necessary to tackle unemployment and financial crises. He was a champion of national economic sovereignty, not unconditional globalization.
In this case, Keynes might have agreed that the US was not at great risk when Trump came back into office with regard to any unemployment / financial crisis, and that, regardless of how the law written by Congress / interpreted by SCOTUS, the outcome was appropriate. I can't speak for Keynes and everyone has their own opinion but that's mine. The neat thing: I couldn't even have come this far without engaging in discussions with ChatGPT.
I sent a thank-you note to ChatGPT for engaging in many discussions with me over the past few weeks with regard to Keynes, Hayek, and Friedman. The discussions helped me understand the SCOTUS ruling a whole lot more than if I had not had those discussions.
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APPLE
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Disclaimer
Briefly
Briefly:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken. I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Longer version here.
Locator: 50013B.
The Pope: feels the issue is either-or -- either the UN or the BOP, but not both. Very, very sad, coming from a "man of peace," unwilling to try "whatever it takes."
Locator: 50012B.
WTI: just hit a new "recent" high. Trending toward $67, but somewhat volatile.
First ten minutes of Cramer:
Apple: another Apple first -- Apple grabs 33% of Europe market -- Apple is the leading smarphone brand in Europe -- record hit 4Q25.
Apple satellite: saved lives in that Lake Tahoe avalanche earlier this week. Apple soon to expand that connectivity. Link here.
Apple: out of stock at Walmart -- link here --
ND LDC: Williston, ND, currently has largest LDC in North Dakota! Will eventually lose that bragging right to the Fargo area.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $66.22.
New wells reporting:
RBN Energy: pipeline buildout set to unlock Permian natural gas production growth later in 2026. Link here. Archived.
This year will be a tale of two halves for the prolific Permian Basin, which is so constrained when it comes to natural gas infrastructure that cash prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have averaged just $0.06/MMBtu since the beginning of December, even including the higher prices during the freeze-offs caused by Winter Storm Fern. Production and pricing figure to remain fairly stable until the back half of this year, when 4.5 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity comes online, giving the basin room to grow for the first time in a long time. In today’s RBN blog, we take a look at the Permian production outlook and the new infrastructure coming to allow for the promised supply growth.
The Permian Basin, which includes West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is a prolific producer of natural gas but it is not a very large consumer. While some production is needed to meet local demand (light-green layer in Figure 1 below), the majority of it needs to leave the basin (dark-green layer). That means that a lot of pipeline capacity is needed to transport the gas to more demand-rich areas. The basin’s effective takeaway capacity (red line) is the sum of all the pipelines out of the area, with some caveats for gas flowing to Mexico and the West because of downstream constraints and ongoing pipeline issues. As the basin becomes more constrained (when the red line moves closer to the dark-green area), the lower Waha prices move. The last time the Permian market was this constrained was in 2024.
Locator: 50011B.
Stories that fascinate me right now:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $66.64. Will it hit $70?
Active rigs: 31. Wow. Recent high.
Two new permits:
Five permits canceled:
One permit reinstatement:
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Locator: 50010HUNTINGTONSCHOREA.
Locator: 50010AI.
AI prompt:
Matt Ridley published Genome in 1999. He mentions Nancy Wexler and Huntington's chorea. At the time, she was still healthy and had no signs of HC, though at that time, 1999, Nancy Wexler was the same age as her mother when her mother was diagnosed with HC. Nancy Wexler is now 25 years old. Any follow-up?
Follow-up:
Nancy Wexler was 23 years old when her mother was diagnosed with the disease. The disease had already affected her mother's father and brothers.
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The Book Page
Genome is a small, easy-to-ready, beach book that every aspiring college-bound senior high school student interested in life sciences should read the summer before going to college.
In a perfect world, Genome would be one of books that she carries with her on her grand tour of Europe before going off to college. That grand tour can be made with an "over-18-year-old mentor."
Then, she can repeat that same grand tour four years later after graduating from college and before she goes to graduate school.
That's exactly what I did with some minor variations and I am eternally grateful to those who made it possible.
Locator: 50009UKEPSTEIN.
King's younger brother arrested: the arrestee no longer has the deep pockets he once had.
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My Favorite Chart
Tag: MMF MMFs money market funds
My favorite chart: link here. Last month I said the most recent data was the largest jump in about two years. The most recent update shows a minor decline.
Updated February 17, 2026, data for January, 2026:
Locator: 50008AAPL.
Breaking news on AAPL: being sued by state of West Virginia over safety of children / photos. One needs to consider the plaintiff.
Huge privacy issue. West Virginia says Apple needs to be scanning all photos that users upload to the iCloud.
Me? It's a non-story. Really? The US Supreme Court will rule "we" need 100% scanning of all photos loaded to the cloud by Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg.
Jobless report today:
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The Blog -- Macro
This blog was the first non-profit blog, focused on the Bakken, to see these two stories or reported on them frequently when no one else reported on them at all.
First:
Second:
Today, we get a new inflation story / undocumented migrant situation;
This undocumented immigration story also explains a lot of the issues over the past few years with regard to:
Most fascinating: NYC. Mayor now plans to cancel new police hires (5,000 new hires affected) to help meet budget crisis.