Locator: 49774HAPPYNEWYEAR.
We'll meet again if we know the way.
Happy New Year from Sophia, et al:
From Texas, Fastball and The Way. Link here.
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Iran? Spiraling Out Of Control? December 31, 2025
Locator: 49773IRAN.
Fox: no paywall.
Do Trump and Netanyahu stand by and watch, or do they take advantage of what's going on now in Iran? My hunch: a lot of pizzas are being delivered to the "White House situation room" and the Pentagon tonight. The shah was overthrown in 1979. Forty-six years ago. It appears the Iranians have one chance to throw out this regime; do they have what it takes? Online nothing yet in The WSJ and apparently this started four days ago.
Alison's Quick Connects -- December 31, 2025
Locator: 49772B.
The quick connects:
• Williston State to Offer Criminal Justice Degree -- Williston State
• UND Awards Five New Community Engaged Projects -- University of North Dakota
• Department of Education awards $10 million to DPI -- Sen. Kevin Cramer
• Legislation to prevent Discrimination against Energy Sources -- Sen. Kevin Cramer
• Fedorchak Votes to Strengthen Grid Reliability -- Rep. Julie Fedorchak
• Senate ENR Committee Approves Wild Horses Legislation -- Sen. John Hoeven
• Gov. Armstrong, legislators waiting on CMS for special session -- KX News
• Oil well pad fire near Watford City -- KX News
• States brace for Trump's push to make oil drilling cheap again -- Bismarck Tribune
• North Dakota law accidentally lists fake critical minerals -- North Dakota Monitor
• Jennifer Benson running for District 41 seat -- InForum
• New Daycare Facility Opens in Alexander -- Minot Daily News
• North Dakota oil production resilient even as prices have declined -- North Dakota Monitor
• Property taxes eliminated for 50,000 North Dakota households -- North Dakota Monitor
• House Passes SPEED Act, Advancing Federal Permitting Reform -- American O&G Reporter
• Williston mayor highlights new law as most significant moment of 2025 -- KFYR-TV
• Basin Electric selects PCL as General Contractor for Bison Station -- Basin Electric
• Ron Ness guest hosts Dakota Morning with Michael Bell 12/30 -- KFYR 550
• University of North Dakota To Introduce Students to Energy-Sector Careers -- The Way Ahead
• Regional Workforce Grant Deadline Extended to January 22 -- ND Dept. of Commerce
• First Round of Rural Catalyst Grant Closes Jan. 7 -- ND Dept. of Commerce
• Feeling the Crunch: Young Station Manages Another Planned Outage -- Minnkota
• Controlled Chaos: Minnkota Members Participate in Simulation -- Minnkota
• 2026 Could be a Different Kind of Bakken Boom -- McKenzie County Farmer
The Bubble Should Last At Least One More Year -- December 31, 2025
Locator: 49771AI.
Minnesota scandal: so, what's all the fuss about? The key word: significant --
Jobs: again, the numbers continue to beat expectations. Rent is down. Prices for used autos are down. A dot connects all of these and it's all due to Trump.
AWS: and "they" said this was a bubble. If so, it's going to last another year. Link here.
Put this in perspective -- the government awards Boeing a $2-billion contract to upgrade the B-52, while AWS commits 25x that amounts -- $50 -- to upgrade its AI.
Nvidia: and "they" said this was a bubble. If so, it's going to last another year.
CAT: link here. Part of the bubble, apparently.
Boeing: this is on top of the story reported yesterday -- one of many links here -- the B-52J --
Boeing just landed a major new Pentagon award tied to the B-52 Commercial Engine Replacement Program, a $2.04 billion task order that keeps the decades old bomber moving toward a new set of engines.
The contract was posted on December 23, 2025, and is aimed at pushing the program through the post design review phase. Right now, each B-52H flies with eight Pratt and Whitney TF33 engines mounted in four twin pods under the wings.
Under this task order, Boeing will complete system integration work and modify and test two B-52 aircraft with the new engines and related subsystems, with work across Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Seattle, and Indianapolis.
The Pentagon schedule runs through May 31, 2033, and about $35.8 million is being obligated at the time of award, with the rest funded over time. The new engine is the Rolls Royce F130, picked by the Air Force in 2021, and Rolls Royce cleared a key critical design review milestone in late 2024. The idea is straightforward: modern engines that are easier to sustain, more efficient, and better suited for keeping the B-52 flying for decades more as the fleet moves toward the B-52J configuration.
New Year's Eve Day -- December 31, 2025
Locator: 49770FOOTBALL.
Nothing to do but wait for the ball games! It took three attempts, but I finally got it:
And instead of searching the net, and getting a lot of useless information and a lot of ads, I simply go to Google Gemini and request: tell me everything I need to know about the Cotton Bowl later tonight. If I need / want more, I can simply ask the next question and so on and so on and get a news story tailored specifically for me.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.25.
New wells being reported the last day of the year:
- Wednesday, December 31, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
- None (there was no June 31, 2025)
RBN Energy: the top ten RBN blogs of 2025. Link here. Archived.
The Top 10 RBN Blogs of 2025 -- Based On "Hits" -- Summaries Generated By ChatGPT With Human Editing -- December 30, 2025
What it takes to get energy from Point A to Point B — from where it is produced to where it is consumed — was at the heart of many of RBN’s most popular blogs in 2025. Infrastructure bottlenecks, shifting logistics, evolving price signals, and the constant push-and-pull between supply and demand all shaped the markets, with each segment seemingly wanting to go its own way. But there was another layer too: the three T’s that hovered over everything this year: Trump, tariffs and turbulence. Together, they formed the backdrop for a market that kept everyone guessing about where things were headed. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the Top 10 blogs of 2025.
Fortunately, in the RBN blogosphere, we have a great way to size up what’s coming next — the blogosphere itself. A huge advantage of publishing a daily blog on a single topic — and distributing it to tens of thousands — is that by tracking how many hits each post gets, we can spot emerging energy-market themes as they develop. And we share those insights with the RBN community. For more than a decade, we’ve wrapped up each year by reviewing which topics rose to the top of the hit parade in our year-end “Top 10” blog, distilling the common themes we learn from what amounts to crowd-sourced market intelligence. Today’s blog is the latest edition of that tradition.
Take the Long Way Home - Enbridge's Oil Pipeline Expansions Likely to Spur More Projects Downstream
Rising Western Canadian crude production and Enbridge’s push to add nearly 400 Mb/d of new Mainline and Express-Platte capacity set up a critical downstream question in 2025: How will all those incremental heavy barrels get from the Canadian border to the Gulf Coast? Building on the themes in #9 (The Race Is On), this blog showed why Canadian flows, export routes and midstream competition are key considerations for the oil markets and why they were among the year’s defining storylines — and that accommodating new north-to-south volumes will require a new generation of pipeline expansions. With another takeaway crunch looming over the next couple of years, Western Canadian crude flows will remain a major driver of midstream development.
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
This Is So Exciting -- It's Hard To Believe -- 2025 Is Coming To A Close -- Last Day Of The Year -- Tomorrow -- December 30, 2025
Locator: 49769ARCHIVES.
This makes sense, why the market would be open all day New Year's Eve -- the last trading day of the year.
December 31, 2025, is a significant date as it is a quarterly expiration date for certain equity, ETF, ETN, and PM-settled index options. This "quadruple witching" event can sometimes lead to increased trading volume and volatility as expiriing derivatives are settled for rolled over.
PM-settled options: trading closes at the end of the trading day; mitigates the risk of overnight events which would effect AM-settled options.
A lot of folks didn't think they would make it to 2026 -- but less than 36 (?) hours now is all they have to go. Awesome.
***********************
Deer Hunting -- Texas
Extended family member.
One of several deer this hunting season.
********************************
The Kitchen Page:
How To Clean Cookie Sheets
Wow, Wow, Wow -- Live Right Now -- From The San Antonio Alamadome -- The Valero Alamo Bowl -- USC Vs TCU -- December 30, 2025
Locator: 49768SPORTS.
Updates
Final:
Original Post
My alma mater: USC (University of Southern California, #16) vs TCU.
At the start of the second quarter, 3 - 7.
At the end of the day, I think I'm rooting for .... the unranked team!!
Unranked, how did TCU get a bowl game?
From AI:
TCU got into the 2025 Alamo Bowl with an 8-4 record because of a unique bowl situation where other Big 12 teams (like Iowa State, Kansas State) had coaching changes and opted out, creating an opening for TCU to fill the Big 12's spot against a strong Pac-12 opponent (USC), showcasing a rare, highly-ranked matchup despite TCU's unranked status entering the game.
How TCU Earned the Spot:
- Big 12 Bowl Tie-In: The Alamo Bowl typically matches the Big 12's second-best team (after CFP/NY6) against the Pac-12's second-best team.
- "Logjam" of 8-4 Teams: TCU finished with a solid 8-4 record, making them a strong candidate for a good bowl game when other teams dropped out.
- Bowl Season Chaos: Several other Big 12 teams, including Iowa State and Kansas State, experienced coaching upheavals and chose to skip their bowl games, creating an unexpected slot for TCU.
From The X-Files -- December 30, 2025
Locator: 49767B.
From the X-Files.
From Peter Zeihan, today: Global oil markets are nearing a massive shock as the shadow fleet edges towards collapse.
With mounting pressure from US seizures, Ukrainian drone attacks, and European interdictions, the roughly 1,000-tanker-strong shadow fleet is in the crosshairs of...everybody. As ships are confiscated, disabled, or destroyed, the numbers stop making sense for captains to run the risk.
This could trigger a severe tanker shortage, driving oil prices up, and making it harder for sanctioned countries to export. We're not just looking at an immediate price spike; this will be a prolonged oil shock impacting everything from transport to production.
Hamas: this is barely being reported. Hamas confirms death of five leaders incluing al-Sinwar's brother. Link here.
Israeli F-15s: link here. Pay attention.
Israel operates several F-15 models (my interest -- the F-15D was my primary a/c for maybe a decade in the USAF):
- the older F-15 A/B/C/D "Baz" variants -- air superiority
- the dedicated ground-attack F-15I "Ra'am" (Thunder) -- the "I" after the "15" stands for the Israeli variant;
- is now acquiring the "Advanced Eagle," the F-151A -- "I" = Israeli and "A" = Advanced
- for enhanced strike and rage, significantly boosting their strategic capabilities
- complements their existing F-15s and F-35.
So, what happened to the F-35? From AI:
The F-22 Raptor's production ended early (in 2011) due to spiraling costs, the perceived lack of a near-peer threat after the Cold War, its limited relevance in counter-insurgency wars (Iraq/Afghanistan), and a strategic shift towards the more versatile, cheaper F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, despite strong USAF interest in a larger fleet. The lack of export potential (due to a US ban) also hampered economies of scale, making it a prime target for budget cuts.
- Key reasons for early cancellation:
- Cost Overruns: Each F-22 was extremely expensive (around $150 million each in 2009 dollars), making it a significant budget concern.
- Post-Cold War Shift: With the Soviet Union gone, the primary threat of a massive air war against a peer adversary diminished, reducing the perceived need for such a specialized fighter.
- Focus on Counter-Insurgency: The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan required versatile, multi-role aircraft, not just air superiority fighters, making the F-22 seem less relevant.
- Rise of the F-35: The more affordable and versatile F-35 Lightning II offered multi-role capabilities (air-to-air, ground attack, reconnaissance) for multiple services, becoming a preferred alternative.
- No Export Market: A 1998 law banned F-22 sales to foreign countries, preventing additional orders that could have lowered unit costs.
Cost of an F-15: link here. It certainly looks like the F-15 is going to be the "B-52 of fighter planes" for longevity and versatility. Truly amazing.
Currently, three fighter jets remain in production for the United States military: the F-15EX Eagle II, the F-35A/B/C Lightning II, and the F/A/18 Super Hornet.
The F-16 Block 70/72 Fighting Falcon is also in production, but it is exclusively exported, although the production line also helps to maintain and upgrade the Air Force's existing fleet.
All three of these aircraft are expensive, costing between $70 million and upwards of $110 million in flyaway costs per aircraft. Putting a single number on the cost of any fighter jet is difficult and problematic. This is because the cost of these aircraft is extremely complicated, and it depends on what costs are included or excluded.
That said, the per-unit flyaway cost of an F-15EX can be estimated.
It may come as a surprise to many, but the fly-away cost of a Boeing F-15EX is now higher than a Lockheed Martin F-35A
As If Things Were Shut Down -- December 30, 2025
Locator: 49767B.
WTI: $57.93.
Active rigs: 28.
No new oil and gas permits.
Odds And Ends -- December 20, 2025
Locator: 49766PEAS.
The black-eyed peas southern style are in the oven!
This is the big story in 2025: Trump opened the door -- took on "missions" that few previous presidents dared -- future US presidents will follow in his footsteps -- international leaders will also take pages from his playbook. Will expand later, but it's quite an interesting story. Good, bad, indifferent -- some would say that fortunately we had a strong judiciary and "rule of law" survived to keep the president inside the guard rails.
Chips, 2026 -- all hands on deck! Anticipate another blistering year! Link here. Lead story in today's WSJ. A very, very nice summary of the big names.
Micron: link here. Again, the comments at the thread are helpful.
******************************
The Recipe Page
Black-Eyed Peas: Casserole
Southern Style
From memory: Find your recipe on line to be safe!
Never add cold water to peas once you start the process. Cold water will make the peas split.
If they split, I guess you can make split-pea soup. LOL.
Lessons learned from first time I made this recipe:
- don't skimp on bacon; if it calls for six slices, use six, maybe seven;
- bacon: the fattier (more white) the better.
Ingredients:
- one-pound black-eyed peas; two cups
- chicken broth; plan on two cups; have more on hand if necessary
- bacon, six slices -- cut into one-inch pieces
- onion, one medium -- minced
- salt to taste: I start with a generous teaspoon
- pepper to taste: I start with a generous 1 1/2 tsp
- mustard, dry: a generous 1/4 tsp
- ginger, "prepared," 3 tsps; I used sushi ginger because that's what I found at Walmart
- honey: optional, 3/4 cup; I used 1/2 cup
1. Soak black-eyed peas overnight.
2. Rinse/drain the peas; place peas in large pan; boil, cover with chicken broth, bring to boil, and then turn down to simmer for 45 minutes; add chicken broth as necessary to keep peas covered.
3. Meanwhile, sauté onions and bacon; recommended -- bacon first, eventually crispy; drain off most fat; leave some fat while sautéing onions with the bacon.
4. Pre-heat over to 325°F.
4. Mix solid spices: salt, pepper, dry mustard.
4. Drain peas that have now been simmering for 45 minutes and place in a 2-quart casserole bowl.
5. Add prepared ginger to solid spices.
6. Add solid spices/ginger to the sautéed onions and crispy bacon; add the mixture to the beans in the casserole bowl.
7. Optional: drizzle honey over peas, onions, bacon, spices.
8. Show your significant other how great the casserole looks before it goes into the oven; note the wonderful aroma.
9. Bake in over (325°F) for 1 1/2 hours.
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Locator: 49765B.
WTI: $58.15.
New wells reporting:
- Wednesday, December 31, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
- None (there was no June 31, 2025)
- Tuesday, December 30, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
- 41551, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11B,
- 41414, conf, Slawson, Atlas 3-21-16H,
RBN Energy: the top ten RBN blogs of 2025. Link here. Archived.
The Top 10 RBN Blogs of 2025 -- Based On "Hits" -- Summaries Generated By ChatGPT With Human Editing -- December 30, 2025
What it takes to get energy from Point A to Point B — from where it is produced to where it is consumed — was at the heart of many of RBN’s most popular blogs in 2025. Infrastructure bottlenecks, shifting logistics, evolving price signals, and the constant push-and-pull between supply and demand all shaped the markets, with each segment seemingly wanting to go its own way. But there was another layer too: the three T’s that hovered over everything this year: Trump, tariffs and turbulence. Together, they formed the backdrop for a market that kept everyone guessing about where things were headed. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the Top 10 blogs of 2025.
Fortunately, in the RBN blogosphere, we have a great way to size up what’s coming next — the blogosphere itself. A huge advantage of publishing a daily blog on a single topic — and distributing it to tens of thousands — is that by tracking how many hits each post gets, we can spot emerging energy-market themes as they develop. And we share those insights with the RBN community. For more than a decade, we’ve wrapped up each year by reviewing which topics rose to the top of the hit parade in our year-end “Top 10” blog, distilling the common themes we learn from what amounts to crowd-sourced market intelligence. Today’s blog is the latest edition of that tradition.
Take the Long Way Home - Enbridge's Oil Pipeline Expansions Likely to Spur More Projects Downstream
Rising Western Canadian crude production and Enbridge’s push to add nearly 400 Mb/d of new Mainline and Express-Platte capacity set up a critical downstream question in 2025: How will all those incremental heavy barrels get from the Canadian border to the Gulf Coast? Building on the themes in #9 (The Race Is On), this blog showed why Canadian flows, export routes and midstream competition are key considerations for the oil markets and why they were among the year’s defining storylines — and that accommodating new north-to-south volumes will require a new generation of pipeline expansions. With another takeaway crunch looming over the next couple of years, Western Canadian crude flows will remain a major driver of midstream development.
Monday, December 29, 2025
Not The Bakken -- December 29, 2025
Locator: 49764RELIGION.
Locator: 49764CAPITALISM.
Updates
December 30, 2025: after a fair amount of discussion with ChatGPT, I have decided to order through Amazon Amy-Jill Levin's The Jewish Annotated New Testament. It's relatively expensive; even with a 21% discount, it still trends toward $60. But, wow, it looks good. [The book arrived December 31, 2025: notes will be kept here.]
Original Post
There are a number of errors in this prompt but AI straightened me out and from there we had an incredible (and incredibly long) discussion. Along the way, I learned about Amy-Jill Levine, Vanderbilt University. Whoo-hoo.
AI prompt: Religion. I know / knew nothing about this. I'm curious what you might know about it.
First comment / observation: I think it's pretty well established that the Romans (non-Jewish / secular / pagans) tried, convicted, and executed Jesus. Second observation / comment: the book of Matthew is the first book of the New Testament. About the time that Matthew was writing what would become the first book of the New Testament, there was a new Jewish Rabbinic movement. Which brings us to the third point: Matthew's writing suggests that he was a rabid anti-Rabbinic Christian and it was he who was most responsible for re-framing the story to not only make the Jews responsible for Jesus' execution, even perhaps to the point of saying it was the Jews who actually had blood on their hands. So, I really don't know. I will do further research on my own but curious where your search may take the two of us.
It was well worth the discussion. I was led to Amy-Jill Levine of Vanderbilt, of whom I was unaware.
****************************
The Book Page
Capitalism and Its Critics, A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AI, John Cassidy, author of How Markets Fail, c. 2025. Hardback. 33% discount at Amazon. See this post.
I don't buy into the meme that Warren Buffett was the greatest of all time (the GOAT).
I have very strong thoughts and very strong feelings about this:
That graph was part of a very long discussion with ChatGPT. That conversation ended like this:
A long, long discussion with ChatGPT ended with this:
In addition to time, the "thing" we bring to the table is our own experience, lessons learned, and the experience of other great investors. Never quit reading. Never quit sharing lessons learned with your grandchildren.
I was looking for a book that would help me flesh out my thesis of the first golden age of investing. Same link as above.
Two New Permits -- December 29, 2025
Locator: 49763B.
WTI: $58.08.
Active rigs: 27.
Two new permits, #42600 and 42601.
- Operator: Enerplus
- Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
- Comments;
- Enerplus has permits for two Esther Federal wells, SESW 33-146-97, to be sited 539 FSL and 2152 FWL.
Electricity Rates By State -- October, 2025, Data -- Posted December 29, 2025
Locator: 49762ELECTRICITY.
In a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors.
Average price of electricity by state, October, 2025, data.
There are five "sectors": residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and all sources. I generally ignore the fourth column (transportation).
For the larger energy-using states, the most important sector is the last column, "all sectors."
For tech-heavy states, most important is the third column, industrial.
For individual Americans, I suppose, the most important column is the first column, residential.
So, let's break it down, least expensive three in each sector:
- residential:
- Louisiana: 12.39
- Idaho: 12.46
- North Dakota: 12.82
- by the way, these are the only states below 13 cents / kWh.
- commercial:
- North Dakota: 6.96
- Texas; 8:30
- Nebraka: 8.82
- by the way, these are the only states below 9 cents / kWh; and only North Dakota is below 7 cents / kWh.
- industrial (all states below 7 cents / kWh):
- New Mexico -- winner, winner, chicken dinner -- 5.53 (up from $5.31 last year)
- Louisiana: 5.80 (up from 5.45 last year)
- Oklahoma: 6.23 (about the same from last year, 6.27)
- Iowa: 6.26 (down from 6.36 last year)
- Idaho: 6.46 (up from 6.13 last year)
- Arkansas: 6.48 (down from 6.74 last year)
- Tennessee: 6.50 (up from 6.17 last year)
- Georgia: 6.64 (up from 6.39 last year)
- Texas: 6.66 (way up from 5.86 last year)
- Nevada: 6.81 (way down from 7.55 last year)
- Montana: 6.97 (down from 7.23 last year)
- South Carolina: 6.98 (down from 7.08 last year)
- Interestingly, North Dakota is not on that list -- 7.54 (up from 7.26 last year).
- Now, taking all those sectors together, the "average":
- North Dakota: 8.04
- New Mexico: 8.81
- Iowa: 8.89
- these are the only states below 9 cents / kWh.
Comments:
- in a state with incredibly "stable" / predictable weather, renewable energy "works": Iowa
- renewable energy does not work in Texas based on the way the state regulates the industry
- I tend to ignore New Mexico
- Texas has relatively inexpensive electricity rates, but the industrial rate in Texas increased by 14% y/y
The state not listed above that interests me most: California:
- residential: 33.60 cents US, 17.98
- throw out the outliers and the US average would be lower than 17.98;
- California: twice the US average
- commercial: 26.96; again, California is twice the US average
- industrial: California's rate is a whopping 23 cents vs US average of 9 -- is that like almost 3x the national average?
- all sectors: California, 28 cents vs 14 cents; again, exactly twice the national average; but get this, California at 28 cents is almost in the same ballpark as Hawaii at 35 cents. throw out New England (a real energy mess) and throw out the outliers, Hawaii and Alaska, and California compared to the rest of the nation is insane.
At this point, it would be very, very interesting to compare:
- renting vs home ownership, percentage comparison, New York, Texas, California);
- average total cost of electricity for a homeowner vs renters;
- burden of electricity costs for renters vs homeowners;
- other similar data.
I have done that; it's difficult to ask the right question for AI to understand what one is asking.
This was most interesting:
But again, AI is considering a lot more than just natural gas / electricity in "utilities." AI also includes phone, internet, water, sewer, etc. At the end of the day, I can't make any sense of the numbers.
A swimming pool in Dallas: annual costs are $1,500 to $6,000 / year. Professional pool maintenance in Dallas, TX: about $150 to $300 / month.
Another Interrupted Week -- Monday -- December 29, 2025
Locator: 49761B.
NFL standings: the NFL business model has really, really, really turned out well. Because of the mediocrity of so many teams in the NFL we are going into the last week of the regular season:
- the brackets have not yet been completed; and,
- there seems to be no sure thing.
This means fans will still stay tuned in to the very end of the season.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.14.
New wells reporting:
- Tuesday, December 30, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
- 41551, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11B,
- 41414, conf, Slawson, Atlas 3-21-16H,
- Monday, December 29, 2025: 70 for the month, 193 for the quarter, 767 for the year,
- 41552, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11G,
- 40764, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-6H,
- Sunday, December 28, 2025: 68 for the month, 191 for the quarter, 774 for the year,
- 41553, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11C,
- 40958, conf, Devon Energy, Grand National 34-36F 5H,
- 40765, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-7H,
- Saturday, December 27, 2025: 65 for the month, 188 for the quarter, 771 for the year,
- 41554, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11H,
- 40784, conf, Enerplus Olson 147-97-34-27-9H-ELL,
- 40769, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-8H,
- 40723, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 5TFH,
RBN Energy: oil and gas producers using M&A to double down on primary areas, fine-tune portfolios. Preview. Archived.
It’s not always easy — or sometimes even possible — to discern trends in upstream-sector M&A activity, but at least a couple of things seem clear as we begin the new year. One is that E&Ps continue to zero in on the production basins where they see the most promise, and to divest assets that aren’t core to their real focus. Another is that the ongoing ramp-up in LNG exports is spurring heightened interest among U.S. and overseas companies in acreage and production targeting that market. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss a few of the big-dollar upstream M&A deals that were unveiled in the past couple of months.
In Stayin’ Alive, our most recent roundup, we looked at the acquisitions that Crescent Energy, California Resources, Chord Energy and others were making to gain scale and expand their holdings in key production areas. More recently, in Take Me Home, Country Roads, we examined Antero Resources’ planned purchase of West Virginia E&P HG Energy (and divestiture of Antero’s Ohio assets), and, in Back in the Saddle, we reviewed U.K.-based Harbour Energy’s newly announced deal to buy LLOG Exploration, a Gulf of Mexico producer.
It’s already time for another roundup — the M&A keeps comin’. We’ll start with Baytex Energy and the $2.3 billion sale of its Eagle Ford assets, which is unusual in that the buyer’s name was not announced and remains under wraps. (That suggests the acquirer is privately held and backed by private equity.) The transaction, which was announced on November 12 and closed on December 19, is also an outlier in that Baytex said that when it releases its full-year 2025 results in early March it expects to record a “loss on disposition” of between $250 million and $350 million related to the sale. (A loss on deposition occurs when an asset is sold for less than its net book value — that is, its original cost minus accumulated depreciation.)
Sunday, December 28, 2025
Jeff Bezos -- December 28, 2025
Locator: 49760BEZOS.
From a book review, Fall 2025 - Winter 2025, The Claremont Review of Books, Peter A. Cclanis, p. 92:
Bezos -- today the world's third-richest person - was born to a 16-year-old high school student from Albuquerque, New Mexico, and an 18-year-old who worked as a unicyclist in a circus.
After learning of the pregnancy, the couple drove to Juárez, Mexico, to get married.
When Bezos was born in January, 1964, his mother had just turned 17. His biological father had trouble financially and drank heavily, leading his mother to file for divorce a little over a year after the marriage. While working as a secretary to make rent, she also attended night school, bringing the baby along with her to classes.
There she met a Cuban immigrant named Miguel Bezos who married her and adopted her baby. Miguel Bezos later graduated from the now-defunct University of Albuquerque with a degree in computer science and got a job with Exxon, which meant moving his family to Houston.
In Houston, young Jeff Bezos attended a public elementary school and was soon recognized as a superstar student. He continued to excel in secondary school and, later, at Princeton, where was elected to Phi Beta Kappa, and graduated summa cum laude with a BS in Engineering. Noe of this is to say that Beos was completely self-made -- his stepfather worked fro Exxon and his maternal grandfather was regional director of the US Atomic Energy Commission in Albubquerque -- but he wasn't born on third base, either.
The book: Capitalism and Its Critics: A History From the Industrial Revolution to AI, by John Cassidy; publisher, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 642 pages, $36 (cloth), $27 (paper).
Re-Posting: The Goat -- December 28, 2025
Locator: 49759GOAT.
Updates
December 28, 2025: I'll update this later with a longer essay but for now just this.
Folks are asking the wrong question (just as they are asking the wrong question with regard to the Minnesota Mess / Somali Scandal, but more on that later). The questions are not a) whether Warren Buffett is/was the greatest of all time (the GOAT) and, if so, b) why? The question is why there seems to be so few great investors of his generation? With this graphic, how could anyone not excel as an investor during the 20th century?
Overlay Warren Buffet's lifespan on this graphic, 1930 to the present:
I had fun talking about this a couple of days ago, before I saw this graphic. Wow. A picture is worth a thousand words.
Original Post
For me, the GOAT was Peter Lynch, not so much because of his investment "returns," but because of what he taught me. Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett / Charlie Munger had two completely different business models. For the mom-and-pop retail investor, Peter Lynch was the "go-to" mentor, not WB/CM.
Exhibit A.
AI prompt:
Warren Buffett is still referred to as the greatest of all. However, having said that, I am most curious about several "break-points" regarding Warren Buffett, and have just bought Alice Schroeder's biography of Warren Buffett, c. 2008 and 2009, updated and condensed. [Condensed? LOL. It's still 804 pages long.]
Having paged through much of that part of the book of which I am most interested, it is absolutely fascinating.
Without question, the original golden age of investing began for those born in the early 1900s and lasted for those born as late as 1964.
For those born after 1964, everything changed with regard to investing and it began when those born in 1964, came of age in 1984, and Apple released the personal computer with great fanfare. Schwab was a singular event, established in 1974, that was the defining change in American investing.
That golden age lasted until 2020, ending with the Covid-19 pandemic. That period generated a relative handful of folks made famous through investing. Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch were the ur-Golden Age investors.
There was a one-year break, and then in 2021, a new age of investing began. The change from 2020 to 2025 was / is absolutely breath-taking, and unlike anything we've seen before. It has become impossible to keep track of the names and number of folks who have become millionaires and billionaires through investing.
Prior to 2020, it all made sense, with 20-20 hindsight.
Note, by birth year:
- "Greatest generation": born between 1901 and 1924.
- Silent generation: born 1925 - 1945
- Baby boomers: 1946 - 1964
By "coming of age years," age 18 to 32:
- first golden age of investing, 1974 to 2020
- birth year, coming of age, 18 years of age to 32 years of age
- 1942 - 1988: 32 years of age
- 1956 - 2002: 18 years of age
So, there were two cohorts during the first golden age of investing.
Warren Buffett was somewhat of an outlier. He turned 18 years old in 1948, turned 32 years of age in 1962. Think about that: 1948 -- 1962 -- the economic boom after the end of WWII. What a time to have come of age!
Peter Lynch: born in 1944. His coming of age years, 18 to 32 years of age: 1962 - 1976. Peter Lynch turned 18 years of age in 1962.
[Something I just noticed: 1962 -- the year Warren Buffett passed the "investing" baton to Peter Lynch! What were you doing in 1962?]
Now, the beginning of the second golden age of investing, beginning 2021:
- 18 year-olds: born in 2003
- 32 year-olds: born in 1989
- anyone born between 1989 and 2003 are absolutely living in the sweet spot for investing
Personal notes:
- 1989 - 2003: essentially my dad's entire investing lifetime
- 1989 - 2003: essentially the first half of my entire investing lifetime
The best thing my generation can do (born 1951) is to invest like we were born between 1989 and 2003 and direct our estates to our grandchildren. Those who are currently financially able to be investors but who are not investing at their max right now are squandering the beginning of the second golden age of investing.
A long, long discussion with ChatGPT ended with this:
In
addition to time, the "thing" we bring to the table is our own
experience, lessons learned, and the experience of other great
investors. Never quit reading. Never quit sharing lessons learned with
your grandchildren.
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Top Ten Global Assets
Saturday, December 27, 2025
Warren Was / Is Not The GOAT -- It Gets Tedious -- Part 2 -- December 27, 2025
Locator: 49770INVESTING.
SCHG vs BRK.B.
Most recent:
Six months:
One year:
Five years:
Max: BRK easily beats the Schwab large cap growth ETF (SCHG) -- by a very, very wide margin -- when zooming out to "max" but at that point, the comparison lacks relevance on so many levels.
What we need is another two years. Like "the Fed," we need more data.
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Musical Interlude
One needs to hear this simply for the CCR clip.
My Favorite Chart -- MMF Update -- November, 2025, Data -- Updated December 15, 2025
Locator: 49769MMF.
Tag: MMF MMFS money market funds
Updates
Later, ---- Schwab has about $700 billion in MMFs under management. BRK has about $400 billion in cash.
ChatGPT confirms that MMFs under management has set an all-time record and has probably breached $8 trillion. Some sources confirm $8 trillion; others suggest $7.67 trillion in December, 2025.
In January, 2020, just prior to the Covid-19 lockdown, MMFUM had just crossed the $4 trillion mark before surging to $5.2 trillion in April, 2020.
It is amazing how fast folks can move money into "cash" (safety) when things look "scary." I am absolutely convinced that this is the break point between the first golden age of investing and the current "tech" age of investing.
Original Post
My favorite chart: link here. Last month I said the most recent data was the largest jump in about two years. I honestly can't make out the jump in the most recent data, but it again shows a huge jump, similar to the jump the previous month. If it's accurate to make that statement, then again we have a most interesting situation in light of the "record" market in US equities (Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ).
The chart:
Zooming in as best we can:
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Travelogue Break
Many decades ago, when we were stationed in Germany, we took a six-day train trip across Switzerland.
To put that train trip in perspective one can cross Switzerland, east to west, by train in about six hours. We took six days! We traveled perhaps two hours each day and then stayed one to two days in towns and cities across Switzerland, including St Moritz. There were several lines and we were on all of them: the Rhaetian Railroad; the Bernina Express; the Albula Line; the Bernina Line; and the Ferrovia del Gottardo. In addition to that incredible, magical train trip, we took countless trips by auto to Switzerland and northern Italy.
This was that train trip.
Space X -- December 27, 2025
Locator: 49768INVESTING.
I had an interesting discussion with ChatGPT earlier today (prompt provided earlier).
My thesis: retail investing changed between 2020 and 2021.
Another example.
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Top 20 Stocks Schwab's Tech-Heavy ETF: SCHB
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- Longer version here.
Lessons Learned -- Re-Posting From Another Blog -- December 27, 2025
Locator: 49767INVESTING.
Lessons Learned
Updates
September 22, 2025: link here. Given a diagnosis of terminal and aggressive cancer, give a year to live, Jonathan Clements wrote a poignant column on November 3, 2024, on what that diagnosis meant. See below. On this date -- September 22, 2025 -- The WSJ carried his obituary. Mr Clements had died the day before, Sunday, September 21, 2025. His webpage is still active and accessible: link here.
Original Post
From the linked article:
I started writing a personal-finance column, Getting Going, for The Wall Street Journal in 1994, and soon earned a reputation as a relentless proponent of indexing. In 2024, at age 61, it seems I’m becoming renowned all over again—for dying.
Yeah, this is a little weird.
Ever since I learned I had cancer and might have just a year to live, I’ve been working like crazy to make sure I bequeath a well-organized estate and leave my family in good financial shape. I’m determined to have as good a death as possible, not least from a financial point of view.
Here are some steps I’m taking.
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