The Market -- On A Day With Huge Buying Opportunities -- Note The Timing -- Sell In May, Go Away? May 29, 2024

Locator: 47980INV.

Personal investing:

• added to my WMT position today by rule. No recommendation. See disclaimer.
• first contribution to Sophia's "529" yesterday; new money contribution
  
• see below: ABBV --> AVGO

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AAPL

On a down day for the market, AAPL is doing surprising well, and seems to be growing "stronger" as the day progresses. See my disclaimer re: AAPL / Apple, Inc.

If Apple can "sell" their M4 as a GPU-AI chip -- this could get interesting. 

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Personal Investing

No recommendations. See disclaimers.

Over the years I 've built up a huge position in ABBV; ABBV has paid a nice dividend allowing investments in other areas, but now the position is large enough to consider tax-loss harvesting, and buying AVGO.

Cramer would suggest: don't sell entire ABBV position; perhaps one-fourth, one-half and with the proceeds buy AVGO.

Dividend:

• ABBV: 4%
• AVGO: 1.5%

Google and AVGO: link here.

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US Economy

Recession? LOL. 

Stressed consumer? LOL.

• Dick's sporting goods soars! Link here.
  
• I don't consider Dick's a low cost retailer
• but wow, it has the best selection
• it's really geared for the high-end buyer but a lot of lower-middle class completely unaware
• considering our Walmart is almost next door, I'm surprised how well Dick's must be doing, even locally
  
• biggest competitor? Yeah, Walmart

Abercrombie up almost 20% today after posting strongest quarter ever! "Hottest retailer around" -- Sara Eisen

• I always consider A&F a niche retailer: hip 20-somethings who liked to bare their bodies; press the edge of the envelope
  
• huge pivot over last several years
• Abercrombie and Hollister
• another great interview by Carl Q and Sara Eisen
• noted that weddings were no longer single-day events;
• weddings now run three to five days
• women (perhaps men) need multiple outfits for the three to five day gala events
• my hunch: a lot of one-day events are now becoming multi-day events
• I surprised my wife some years ago (two decades ago?) when I expanded her one-day birthday celebration to a full week celebration -- much the way our wedding / wedding celebration was staged over several days across two far-flung states
  
• back to ANF: huge lessons learned during Covid-19: stay lean
• CEO is obviously very, very thrilled; one of the better CEO interviews I've seen in a long time
• Hollister, almost half of total company
• ANF brings a lot of traffic to malls; but sticks close to right size, right location

Chewy: also huge; stressed consumer?

• personal observation: we live in a dog-friendly, medium-end apartment complex
• Chewy deliveries one of the biggest things I see in the complex on a daily basis
• why lug home pet food (generally bulky, heavy) when it can be ordered / delivered from Amazon / Chewy.com
  

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COP - MRO

In the Bakken:

• COP is a big player, but through its subsidiary, BR, is a relatively important operator in the Bakken
• MRO probably has some of the best wells in the Bakken, but more importantly seems to be the leader in re-fracking the Bakken, particularly in the Bailey oil field
• the real surprise? How big Chord Energy has become in such a short period of time
• Chord Energy may have overtaken Continental Resources (formerly known as CLR)  
• I don't know if folks remember but at one time just last year it was rumored that Devon would buy Enerplus -- 
• market caps
• DVN: $30 billion
  
• CHRD: $7.5 billion
• ERF: $4 billion
  

COP website.

• to increase base dividend to 78 cents in 4Q24
• breakeven in the Permian: $30
• (78-58)/58 = 34% increase
• dividend history:

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Other

A bridge too far? If the CVX - HES deal falls through, could CVX pivot quickly to acquire DVN in light of the COP-MRO announcement. Everyone suggests the COP-MRO deal is the need for COP to increase its shale oil exposure

• market cap:
• HES: $16 billion
• DVN: $30 billion

Market opportunities today: a nice sell-off in early trading.

AAPL:

• in the old days when APPL's target was around $200, I bought more APPL when it went to $160;
• now, with target still at $200, but some targets as high as $275, could the new buying opportunity for AAPL be at $190?
• possibly;
• by rule, I can't invest in more AAPL unless AAPL drops below $175
• interestingly, on a "down-day" for the US markets, AAPL doing very, very well -- this is very, very unusual and something to watch

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.