Again, Incredibly Good Economic Numbers This Morning -- ISM Numbers -- February 5. 2024

Locator: 46741INV.

AAPL: wow, wow, wow -- AAPL surges today. Wow. Wow. Wow. 

New concern: the "bull market" is going to end because the economy is doing too well. LOL. Yeah, the economy is doing so well, JPow will have to keep rates higher for longer. This will kill the bull market.

Can't post this often enough:

CNBC pundits:

• two weeks ago: six rate cuts in 2024; first one in March; repeat in May;
• last week: five rate cuts; a March cut is off the table; the May cut is 50-50;
• this week: three rate cuts this year
• May, 2024: no cuts this year; okay maybe two -- one just before the election and one in November.
  

What we know, what is probable:

• Fed cuts come no more often than odd-numbered months
• JPow says three cuts remain on the table
• JPow telegraphs a 99% chance there will be no cut in March
• analysts now "bet" a Fed rate cut in May (month #5) no better than 50 - 50; not gonna happen; economy booming; 1Q24 GDP could be greater than 4.2%;
• sell in May, go away
• summer doldrums, July (month #7) -- a paltry quarter-point cut; and even that's questionable;
  
• September (month #9) -- a cut now would be seen as political; election just six weeks out; peak polling;
• November (month #11) -- with holiday sales surging, do we really need a cut?
• let's add up the "dot" graph
• May: yes
• that's it.
• why would the Fed cut if it doesn't have to cut? Has the Fed ever cut if they didn't see a need?