Rambling Thoughts On Oil From Someone With A Rolling 30-Year Investment Horizon -- June 19, 2023

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There is nothing new in this blog. I've been saying this for the past few weeks. 

I've been blogging since 2007, though the "Bakken" blog has at its first post, dated sometime in 2009. From day one, one theme was an eventual shortage of crude oil. I don't know "who" started that meme (there were probably several) and thus I have no idea what the "hidden agenda" was -- by those who started the meme.

Certainly, Big Oil and Saudi Arabia benefited from that meme.

It took awhile, but it's now clear to me that there will never, ever be a shortage of accessible, affordable crude oil. At best, the meme has changed to this: there will continue to be an increase in crude oil demand, albeit not much, through 2050, with some suggesting that from 2027, crude oil demand will start to decline.

In other words, for the investor with a rolling 30-year horizon, "oil" is not a growth sector. It may be a lot of things for investors and others, but for investors, it won't be a growth sector. Someone much smarter than I opined that Big Oil would now "go the way of the cigarette companies, but not, perhaps the way of the dinosaurs.”

For humankind it matters not whether we run out of crude oil for transportation. We will never run out of energy for transportation: wind and solar will last forever; uranium / nuclear energy will last just as long for all practical purposes; coal will easily last several centuries; natural gas will last long enough, and then it's electrolysis of ocean water (inexhaustible and renewable) to make hydrogen for as far out as we can see.

I'm gradually re-balancing my portfolio.

Warren Buffett: know what you have in your portfolio and know why you own it.

I have "too many" companies in my portfolio; I know why I bought them originally, but it now becomes more difficult to keep up with everything.

I'm looking forward to a busy, busy week.