Of the two metrics, Russian oil production and/or Russian crude oil exports, I think the first is more important, possibly more accurate, and a better reflection of sanctions placed on Russia.
The second metric, Russian oil exports will be difficult to sort out. There will be a lot of cheating and a lot of "propaganda" regarding Russia's exports. Russian exports will be highly suspect.
On the other hand, Russian oil production data should be more accurate, even if questionable.
Some argue that western technology is necessary if Russia wants to maximize its production. Sanctions will have a huge effect on Russia's ability to produce.
So, we'll see.
From April 7, 2022, Charles Kennedy: "In early April, Russia sees steepest oil production decline since May, 2020."
- first week of April, 2022, production fell 4.5% compared to the March average
- the steepest decline in output since May, 2020
- Russia pumped the equivalent of 10.52 million bopd
- represents 500,000 bopd below the average Russian production for the whole month of March;
- Russia's production in March had already declined from February, albeit by a small margin
- the decline in March, though small, was the first such drop since August, 2021
- a Russian oil pipeline operator will cap the intake of yet-to-be-sold crude oil because of full storage
No mention of Russia's reliance on western technology.
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