Notes From All Over -- August 13, 2021

Updates

August 15, 2021: I just uploaded the screenshot of a cup of coffee priced at $4.50 and I have a K-cup for 21 cents. I'm going to go have a cup of coffee. LOL.

Original Post

Katie Ledecky: alone on the NYSE closing bell stage! Has her own "logo." Interviewed on closing bell. 

Inflation: lots of talk about inflation but doesn't seem to be impacting the market or quality of life for Americans. In fact, listening to the talking heads on CNBC, if folks are concerned about inflation, stop buying things. LOL. Stop buying unnecessary plastic things, paraphrasing Nanci Griffith, RIP. 

There's plenty of beer at $9.99; quit buying $12.99 beer and my hunch the more expensive beer would trend toward $9.99. Just saying. The most interesting thing: gasoline prices seem out of line (on the high side) compared to the price of oil. Check out the percentage of imported crude oil.

Inflation: remove food, energy, rent, health, lumber, and used cars, and it looks like inflation is not all that bad. According to one expert on CNBC the inflationary trajectory has already changed direction (declining).  

Consumer Sentiment Index: is the mainstream media news self-fulfilling? From Breitbart Busness Digest --

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 70.2 from the final July reading of 81.2. 

Professor Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist, pointed out that the index has recorded larger losses only six other times in the past half-century. 

In each of those declines, there was a connection to sudden negative changes in the economy, such as last summer's shutdown or the financial crisis. In other words, the American public is reacting to recent news as if something very bad had just happened.

Coffee: a few weeks ago, talking heads and Starbucks spokesman said coffee was going to get significantly more expensive -- drought in South America; global economy opening up. 

K-cups over at Amazon run at 35 cents to 85 cents a piece. I won't pay more than 35 cents if I don't have to. One week ago Amazon had a sale on the brand I buy, at 26 cents per K-cup. Think about that: 26 cents for a cup of coffee. Even McDonald's charges 69 cents for a senior cup (that was last year when I last visited), and Starbucks trends towards $1.75 for a tall black coffee. 

I bought two cartons of that 26-cent K-cups and sent one carton each to one extended family member and to an AirBnB house where we stayed a year ago, and thoroughly enjoyed the experience. We will probably never stay there again, but it's been fun to send them a box of K-cups every few months. 

Holy mackerel: Amazon has that K-cup coffee down to 21 cents per K-cup. Less than a quarter for a cup of coffee. Give me a break. Link here, graphic below. And for a subscription, down to less than 20.4 cents. I have trouble understanding why mom-and-pop donut shoppes aren't subscribing -- 20 cents "wholesale" and selling it for a buck a cup. Wow, they must be buying coffee from their own source for less than twenty cents. I don't know. Imagine the margins on Starbucks coffee.

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US imported crude oil:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 41	December 23, 2020	5.6	0.140	-12.90%
Week 42	December 30, 2020	5.3	-0.238	-14.40%
Week 43	January 6, 2021	5.4	0.043	-18.10%
Week 44	January 13, 2021	6.2	0.900	14.90%
Week 45	January 22, 2021	6.0	-0.194	-11.80%
Week 46	January 27, 2021	5.1	-1.000	-13.90%
Week 47	February 3, 2021	6.5	1.400	-9.20%
Week 48	February 10, 2021	5.9	-0.700	-12.00%
Week 49	February 18, 2021	5.9	0.041
Week 50	February 24, 2021	4.6	-1.300	-13.30%
Week 51	March 3, 2021	6.3	1.700	-12.80%
Week 52	March 10, 2021	5.7	-0.600
Week 53	March 17, 2021	5.3	-0.332	13.90%
Week 54	March 24, 2021	5.6	0.300	-9.50%
Week 55	March 31, 2021	6.1	0.500	-9.40%
Week 56	April 7, 2021	6.3	0.119	-5.00%
Week 57	April 14, 2021	5.9	-0.411	7.00%
Week 58	April 21, 2021	5.4	-0.448	5.00%
Week 59	April 28, 2021	6.6	1.200	10.70%
Week 60	May 5, 2021	5.5	-1.200	7.80%
Week 61	May 12, 2021	5.5	0.037	7.60%
Week 62	May 19, 2021	6.4	0.900	10.90%
Week 63	May 26, 2021	6.3	-0.138	0.50%
Week 64	June 3, 2021	5.6	-0.600	-0.70%
Week 65	June 10, 2021	6.6	-1.000	-1.90%
Week 66	June 16, 2021	6.7	0.108	-5.90%
Week 67	June 23, 2021	6.9	0.197	-1.00%
Week 68	June 30, 2021	6.4	-0.500	2.80%
Week 69	July 8, 2021	5.9	-0.500	-2.20%
Week 70	July 14, 2021	6.2	0.347	-0.10%
Week 71	July 21, 2021	7.1	0.900	2.90%
Week 72	July 28, 2021	6.5	-0.600	6.90%
Week 73	August 4, 2021	6.4	-0.075	15.80%
Week 74	August 11, 2021	6.5	-0.036	16.30%