Chinese Flu Watch -- November 17, 2020

One gets the feeling that the "second wave" will be much worse than the first wave. The new state mandates certainly suggest that, link here. 

Case rate in North Dakota (number of cases / state population) is running about 8%. Similar to South Dakota. Most of the rest of the country is running about 3%. 

Tea leaves (or fact?):

• the rest of the country will eventually "catch up" to North and South Dakota
  

Remember:

• Spanish flu pandemic: estimated that 33% of the global population was infected;
• at 8% in the Dakotas, and 3% in the rest of the country, "we" have a long way to go
• however many total cases there have been in New Jersey, multiply that by ten
• (this will be difficult for the NY Times editors)

If the second wave is worse, there are several reasons:

• "seasonal flu" is now being lumped into "Chinese flu";
• the natural-occurring "cold and flu" season has started (in fact, in some areas of the country, sooner than usual)
• increased anxiety --> increased testing
• increased testing --> increased number of cases

The last two bullets can be mutually exclusive.

I understand why lay folks are confused, may not understand it, but I find it surprising that medical experts don't. The thing that confuses me the most: the 10:00 p.m. curfews that are now "a thing." The virus is more active at night?

If the virus is equally active 24/7, why not a 24/7 curfew?

Today, the headline story from Dr Fasut: is 75% are vaccinated, the "virus will disappear." Sure, like just like chickenpox, measles, and polio. LOL.

Yesterday, Dr Faust said that even if 90% are vaccinated we will still need lockdowns and masks. 

Three sources for data:

• WSJ- Johns Hopkins data;
• worldometer:
• CDC MMWR
  

How soon will we see universal Chinese flu vaccination in the US? See poll at sidebar at the right.