The Bakken Is Back -- Natural Gas Transmission -- August 25, 2020

Before we get started, a reminder:

Northern Border Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline which brings gas from Canada through Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa into the Chicago area. It is owned by TC PipeLines, LP and ONEOK Partners and is operated by TC PipeLines, LP . Its FERC code is 89.

Another reminder: the Bakken is an oil play, not a natural gas play. To repeat: the Bakken is an oil play, not a natural gas play.

This was sent to me by a reader moments ago:

Resurging production in North Dakota's Bakken Shale following a wave of spring shut-ins has pushed Canadian exports to the US Midwest on Northern Border Pipeline down to its lowest flow volumes in more than 15 years, increasing the AECO hub's discount to Chicago pricing. 

However, Index of Customer data shows a year-over-year increase in Canadian Exports on Great Lakes Gas Transmission line this winter.

Link here.

I don't have the automated tools I would need, and I don't have the time, but based on anecdotal data (daily posting of Bakken wells coming off the confidential list; initial production data of new wells; and, the EIA dashboards), it was very clear to me that Bakken natural gas production was going to surge following incredibly dismal months of May and June, 2020. I do believe May, 2020, was the worse of the few recent months. (Again, I am crude-centric, but as the Bakken play matures, the production of natural gas production increases with crude oil production.)

Check out the deposits in the Legacy Fund and it appears that is correct. The absolute worse months were June and July, 2020. August, 2020, deposits more than doubled those of July, 2020.

More from the linked article:

Returning Bakken production and falling capacity have helped push West Canada flows to additional lows on Northern Border, while strengthening prices limit rerouting gas to the US Upper Midwest.

West Canada flows have averaged just 524 MMcf/d in August on Northern Border, the lowest in at least 15 years, and hitting as low as 400 MMcf/d for three straight days early this month, according to data by S&P Global Platts Analytics. In contrast, month-to-date flows averaged 994 MMcf/d in 2019.

Returning Bakken production is the primary reason behind reduced flows, as Platts Analytics production sample has averaged 2 Bcf/d this month, just 176 MMcf/d below samples seen from January through March. Coupled with this has been falling capacity along Northern Border. It has dropped 142 MMcf/d from the first three months to 2.5 Bcf/d this month at Glen Ullin.

Bakken production has climbed back to 1.97 Bcf/d, according to the latest data from the North Dakota Industrial Commission. However, it still remains well below the 3.1 Bcf/d the state averaged in March when the crude oil price collapse struck, prompting a wave of shut-ins, limiting associated gas production.

See the most recent ND data at this post, June, 2020, data:

• natural gas production: 1,973,289 MCF/day
• the number of producing wells, June, 2020: 13,167
  

Back in late 2018 -- seems like a long time ago:

• the number of producing wells was at an all-time high at that time in late 2018: (15,344)
• these wells were producing 2,561,988 MCF/day