Monday, July 15, 2019

Notes From All Over -- Part 1, July 15, 2019

Permian update: From The Washington Post via The Grand Forks Herald  today -- things are slowing down in the Bakken. Lots could be said but I think regular readers of the blog and those who have some familiarity with the shale revolution probably have their own thoughts on this.

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US equity futures: right now, it looks like we could have another record-setting day:
  • WTI: up very slightly
  • S &P 500 futures: up about 6 points, about 21 points above 3,000
  • Dow: up almost 60 points, about 368 points above 27,000
  • NASDAQ: up 17 points; within 23 points of hitting 8,000 
In early-market trading (I'm surprised by all the pre-open trading)
  • NOG (surprising; usually these little guys don't trade this early): up 1%
  • CVX: green but flat
  • COP: ditto
  • OXY: climbing the wall of worry; up 1/4%
  • XLNX: almost a percent
  • TSLA: up over 1%
  • F: down about 1/3%
Look at this, DE: trading near its 52-week high, is up over 1% in early morning trading

Which reminds me, the China-US tariff tiff --
  • when did you last see an article on how expensive stuff is getting because of the China-US tariff war; you haven't; because it hasn't happened; 
  • generally speaking Deere's prospects can be directly correlated with how farmers are doing, or how analysts think farmers will do 
    • April 15, 2019:  170
    • May 13 2019: 135
    • July 15, 2019: 167
  • behind the scenes, my hunch is that Trump-Xi are making a lot of US agricultural deals
  • corn prices are going to come in really high later this year
  • if I recall correctly, Trump administration blinked on biofuel quotas (but don't quote me on that)
  • and, headline over at Yahoo!Finance: China's economy grows at slowest pace since 1990s (this could spur China to get serious about negotiating with Trump
So, where were we?
  • T: up a bit
Oh, look at this: over the weekend, we were told to watch "the banks" today; they are reporting and the whisper numbers suggested some good news and here's the first bit of good news -- "Citi kicks off earnings season with better-than-expected results

There was a headline, by the way, that earnings were really going to suck this quarter, but, it was the time to buy --


Yes, the market looks about six months out on slow news days.

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