Notes From All Over -- Part 2, July 15, 2019

Not so fast. Remember all that talk back in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 -- that there was going to be a really big decline in oil production because the majors were delaying, deferring, or downright exiting deep ocean drilling. Pundits suggested that the emphasis on shale was going to turn out badly.

So, where are we today? It turns out that global oil supply in the first half of 2019 exceeded demand by almost one million bopd. Think about that: oil supply exceeded demand by almost 200 million bbls in 1Q19 which represents ... two days of global demand. Earlier it had been estimated that global supply would exceed demand by only 0.5 million bopd, about a day's worth of demand over six months.

Now this, from the Rigzone staff -- oil and gas discoveries in 2019 (so far) see a 35% increase.

Wow. Two words: peak oil.

Oil and gas discoveries in 2019 see a 35% increase.

This is not production from current plays. This is discovery.

Remember all that talk back in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 -- that there was going to be a really decline in oil production because the majors were delaying, deferring, or downright exiting deep ocean drilling. Pundits suggested that the emphasis on shale was going to turn out badly.

Discoveries in 2019 have resulted in a 35% increase in "new" oil and gas:

• in the first half of 2019 alone, the world has uncovered almost 7 billion boe 
• deepwater is leading the way
• most of this is in the form of gas discoveries
• participants: Russia, Guyana, Cyprus, South Africa, and Malaysia
• high-risk frontier plays in deepwater are back on the map for explorers
• 30 of the 56 identified global conventional discoveries in 2019 have been located offshore 
• rounded: 30 is half of 60

By the way, the IEA now suggests there might be a decline in oil production in the next few months, but we will see a new flood of production in 2020. The headline said a "huge glut of oil will be seen in 2020.

Peak oil? Hardly.

Barry: everything I've read / watched on television's WeatherChannel suggests tropical storm was a non-story. It was even a stretch to call it a hurricane. It was upgraded to a hurricane for a few minutes before it hit landfall; when it hit landfall, it was back to a tropical storm/tropical depression. We'll see this week how quickly they recover.