Out And About With Sophia In Southlake -- December 2, 2017

Sophia and I spent the day out and about in Southlake, TX, today.

I've mentioned this before. Downtown Southlake is a 12-square block (plus or minus a dozen city blocks) that is for all practical purposes, an outdoor upscale mall.

We spent the first hour at Barnes and Nobel, then Whole Earth Provision, a half hour at the city library, then Jamba Juice for a smoothie, over to the Apple Store, and then across the street to the newly opened Tesla showroom. It opened in September -- just a couple of months ago. I completely missed this one.

It was actually quite exciting to sit inside a Tesla. The showroom is spacious enough to hold three Teslas; I suppose they could squeeze in a fourth. There was one Model X (the SUV) and two versions of the Model S. Sophia sat in the back seat and then moved to the driver's seat in the Model S. She had a grand time playing with the "dashboard" and all the touch pad gizmos. It was very much like one giant iPad.

The car listed for $97,499. The manufacturer (or the EPA) noted that this car would save $3,750 in fuel costs over five years. I have trouble believing anyone buying a $100,000 car is worried about fuel costs, but for the record, $3,750 / 60 = a savings of $62.50/month or one sushi dinner for two each month.

The car really was elegant, but I have to admit I have nothing to compare it to. I do not recall ever sitting in the passenger seat of a $100,000 car being "driven" by a three-year-old. But for $100,000, one would hope it had a feeling of elegance.

The weather was beautiful today and we saw a number of Porsches, Lamborghinis, and Ferraris on the streets today.

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Tesla Derangement Syndrome

Speaking of Tesla, from a contributor over at SeekingAlpha: Tesla November a big stinker --

As we enter the final month of the year, things are not looking good for Tesla. The Model 3 ramp continues at a sluggish pace, and the latest estimates for November deliveries of current models was a big disappointment. With key borrowing and some material costs also soaring, Tesla is not likely to hold $300 a share if the bad news keeps piling up. 

Data points:

• estimates for Model 3 deliveries: and increase of 200 units to 345
• first five months, Model 3 total: 712 units
• Chevy Bolt: just under 3,000 units in November alone
• in the first five months, nearly 5,000 units
• Musk forecast: 100,000 to 200,000 units by 2H17
• sales of the higher-priced Model S and X: sales fell in October and November
• Germany has removed Tesla from its subsidies list due to vehicle prices being too high
• cobalt prices continue to soar, now more than $31/pound (as low as $10/pound early in 2016
• borrowing money is going to get more expensive

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The Apple Page

The Apple store, as expected, was incredibly busy today. Not the busiest that I have seen but, still, incredibly busy. I was surprised by the number of customers interested in the Apple Watch. The busiest part of the store was in the back where all the accessories for Apple products are sold, such as the wireless AirPods.

Most notable observation: one male customer, about 45 years old, bought four identical desktop iPads -- it was quite incredible. I don't think I've ever seen anyone purchase four desktop iMacs during one visit. These are not small boxes. He asked for help carrying them out to his car but was told that Apple employees can go no further than curbside out the Apple store. He was asked to bring his car around to the front of the store. It was a BMW -- sort of plebian compared to all the Italian sports cars seen driving in Southlake today.

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4Q17

Based on what I saw in Southlake today, and the GOP tax cut, and the stock market these past few days, it's going to be a huge retail season.