Back On The Net -- December 2, 2017 -- GDP Jumps 30% In One Day -- What Was Obama Doing For EIght Years? ABC Suspends Top Report For "Epic Failure"

Warning: it's possible a lot of the blogging over the next 48 hours will NOT be about the Bakken. The purpose of the blog was to help me understand the shale revolution (mission accomplished) and to put it in perspective (on-going). To some extent, one could argue, the latter (putting the Bakken in perspective) now takes precedence. So bear with me over the weekend. If anyone has problems with shortage of information on the Bakken over the next couple of days, I will gladly refund their subscriptions.

I'm back on the net.

Two nights ago, Thursday night, I decided to take Friday off. I knew I would not be able to handle the volatility and the nonsense that was sure to occur after that incredible surge in the stock market and the news that the senate was actually going to pass something.

And I succeeded.

I did not watch one minute of news yesterday; watched some golf (Tiger Woods Tournament) and the USC-Stanford football game last night.

I did not go on the internet except to correct some typographical errors on the blog.

This note from Zero Hedge shows, in hindsight, why I am so glad I took Friday off (see screen shot below). I cannot handle (emotionally?) huge drops in the stock market -- I'm not concerned about the portfolio. It will take care of itself. I will never see the money myself. It all goes to the daughters and granddaughters. What I can't stand is the nonsense that drives the volatility, and it appears there was a lot of nonsense yesterday. Sort of like those folks who love sausage but can't watch it being made.
 

Now that the tax bill is passed, I can die and go to heaven. I think many people would agree the political story is bigger than the tax story. If this Congress doesn't do anything else, that's fine.

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GDP Now: GPD Jumps 30% In One Day

Latest forecast: 3.5 percent — December 1, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on December 1, up from 2.7 percent on November 30.

The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 2.6 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment spending growth increased from 6.7 percent to 8.4 percent after the ISM report and this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for November—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.40 to 1.22 after the ISM report. The forecast of real government spending growth increased from 2.0 percent to 3.0 percent after the construction spending release. 

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Why I Took The Day Off

Update, December 2, following the ABC report on General Flynn (see graphic above):