GDP Estimate For 1Q17 Keeps Dropping -- February 15, 2017

Latest GDP Now forecast: 2.2 percent — February 15, 2017 :

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on February 15, down from 2.7 percent on February 9.

The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent after the retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were released this morning.

The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to growth fell from -0.20 percentage points to -0.39 percentage points after the industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Business Inventories report from the U.S. Census Bureau were released this morning.

The inventory contribution forecast for February 9 was corrected to account for data from the wholesale trade report not incorporated in last Thursday's GDPNow update. The correction did not change the model's GDP growth forecast after rounding.