For The Archives: The 2015 Oscar Nominations -- January 15, 2015

For Kei who reads all my non-oil / non-Bakken posts:

The Oscar nominations for 2015 just came out. I am absolutely thrilled. Two of my favorite DVDs were on the list: The Grand Budapest Hotel for best movie (and eight other nominations); and Finding Vivian Maier for best documentary.

The Washington Post is reporting: 2015 Oscar nominations: Complete list; Selma snubbed; Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel lead with nine.

The Grand Budapest Hotel,which won a best picture award at the Golden Globes, is starting to look like an unstoppable force.  

Actress in a Leading Role included Julianne Moore in Still Alice.

Julianne Moore is the favorite here, playing a linguistics professor grappling with an early onset Alzheimer’s diagnosis.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Will it be Steve Carell’s prosthetic nose in Foxcatcher or an unrecognizable Tilda Swinton under an aged face in The Grand Budapest Hotel? 

The Grand Budapest Hotel; nine (9) nominations: best film, director, cinematography, costume design, film editing, makeup and hairstyling, music, production design, original screenplay.

I was surprised to see that The Grand Budapest Hotel did not get a nomination for visual effects. The visual effects in GBH were sublime, subtle, sweet (to complete the alliteration). Maybe that was the problem.

I was thrilled to see Julianne Moore on the list. She is a supporting actress in one of my current favorite movies, The Big Lebowski. I watched it again last night. She is gorgeous.

I was also thrilled to see Tilda Swinton get a nomination -- actually, I suppose it was her makeup artist that got the nod, not Ms Swinton. She is in another of my current favorite DVDs, one I can watch two or three times back-to-back in one sitting, after the midnight hour: Only Lovers Left Alive, 2013.

And finally, wow, wow, and wow: the documentary Finding Vivian Maier -- I first saw that at one of the fine arts museums in Ft Worth, TX; I don't recall what specifically caught my interest, but it's a great, great documentary. I bet it was one of only two such documentaries I have paid much attention to in the last couple of years, and it is up for an Oscar (won't win). The other documentary that caught my attention recently: Tim's Vermeer, also 2013. I'm kinda surprised it did not get nominated.

I never guess on who will win the Oscar in any category. Too much politics in Hollywood of which I know nothing.  That's why there are two lists for Oscars: a) those who will win; b) those who should have won.

And that, by the way, is why the Golden Globes has better Hollywood attendance: the awards go to who should win.

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Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Automobiles, and China

At SeekingAlpha: The Crude Oil Slump Is Also Temporary From A Demand Standpoint. Even without reading the article, one can about predict what it is going to say if it's about oil, China, and automobiles.

Don sent me the link to the linked article. This was my response:

I think all these folks who think the price of oil will rebound sooner than later start off with that argument and then try to prove their thesis. 

Meanwhile, folks who think we won't see $100 oil again are doing the same thing: starting off with that premise and then finding data/articles to support their thesis. 

All I can say is I'm happy with my blog post of -- "The Future of Shale" :

• at $150 oil: the Bakken and all North American plays become very, very active 
• at $100 oil: most North American plays become active again 
• at $75 oil: only the sweet spots in the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford remain active 
• at $50 oil: shale starts shutting down

Regardless, it is pretty much proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt that Peak Oil theorists lost their argument (as a viable investment argument for the next 20 years); at even reasonable prices ($150 oil) it appears "we" won't run out of oil any time soon.

There appear to be three centers of gravity:

• Saudi Arabia/OPEC 
• off-shore 
• North American (shale and Canadian sands) 

One can put them in a different order based on how fast they can react or affect prices:

• Saudi Arabia/OPEC: immediately 
• North American: 6 months 
• off-shore: 3 years 

In other words, a Saudi Arabia announcement on oil production today can affect prices the same day; an announcement regarding North American production will affect prices six months out; off-shore drillers need at least three years to put together a project and won't affect prices until that project comes on line. 

The linked article above focuses on China. I think most analysts forget about China. China will grow a lot faster than people think.

But my hunch is that oil supply can easily keep up for quite some time.