Natural Gas Fill Rate Falls And It's A Doozy -- November 26, 2014

I was surprised by this. It looks like the natural gas fill rate will be released at 12:00 noon today. This post might have the best background for newbies. The tag at the bottom of the post, "NG_Fill_Rate" will take you to previous posts on this subject in chronological order.

Wow, wow, wow -- today's number (a dynamic link): - 162. 

The narrative:

This represents a net decline of 162 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 346 Bcf less than last year at this time and 400 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,832 Bcf.

In the East Region, stocks were 183 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 89 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 166 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,257 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 55 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 52 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 18 Bcf. At 3,432 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.  

Even the producing region saw a net withdrawal. 

Most incredibly, look at the graph at the link, the gap between today's data point and the 5-year historical average has widened.

The "historical decline rate" for the past month (October 14 - November 21) was always pretty flat. This year, that same period, a distinctive downturn. Global warming.

Natural gas is currently up 6 cents, to $4.46, trending higher. The first monthly report for winter is still five weeks away.

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The Road To Germany

A reader sent me this link:

State utility regulators today approved a 500-mile transmission line designed to ferry thousands of megawatts of power from wind farms in Iowa and other Plains states into the Chicago market.

The unanimous endorsement by the Illinois Commerce Commission, over the opposition of Commonwealth Edison, was a major regulatory hurdle for the developers of the $2 billion Rock Island Clean Line.

I've become "agnostic" with regard to wind, but the fact that Commonwealth Edison opposed this suggests the utility is concerned about the "road to Germany" in which utilities are at great risk with the business model being proposed by the Illinois Commerce Commission, but it's their call, and the "road to Germany" is well-known.

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Some Parting Thoughts

Remember: This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Some data points and stories that pretty much tell  us some exciting things about the energy picture in North America. 

• the RBN Energy story posted earlier today about how huge the Canadian oil sands really is
• the CNBC video from yesterday telling us how much energy India and China will need through 2035
• that same CNBC video that suggests the Bakken is "bigger" than the Arctic (the Arctic matters not for the moment; Nero has written off the Arctic, pretty much giving the Arctic to Russia, Denmark, Canada, and a few others)
• the record high UNP recorded yesterday; its dividend history; and its forecast
• how inexpensive gasoline is today, and how incredible the supplies of oil will be for the rest of my life, and possibly for the rest of my daughters' lives; the Peak Oil graph will move to the right for another 30 years
• the incredible opportunities young investors have today compared to when Warren Buffett was starting out
• LNG exports begin in earnest next year
• crude oil pipelines are full; imagine how much more is needed (based on all the CBR that needs to be turned into pipeline)