Thursday Morning -- Where The Bakken Laboratory Is Taking Us -- Dow Chemical; Rising Utility Costs To Persist

Wow: Northwestern University football players receiving athletic scholarships are employees and therefore can unionize, according to a landmark ruling by a National Labor Relations Board regional director.

Wow: stock market futures up slightly, but WTI futures up suggesting we may see $101/bbl oil today. 

Active rigs:

	3/27/2014	03/27/2013	03/27/2012	03/27/2011	03/27/2010
Active Rigs	198	185	206	170	105

RBN Energy: natural gas projections (pricing, demand) for 2014.

Several key factors point to a gradual increase in natural gas power burn over the next few years. More gas-fired units are coming online, and more coal-units are being retired.   But with gas prices trending higher this spring and summer than in the same periods last year, 2014 gas use by the electric sector may end up unchanged from 2013--unless this summer is a scorcher. The stronger pricing is good news for producers, of course, as is the very real need to replenish depleted gas stocks. Today, in the first episode of a new series on power burn demand for natural gas, we look back at 2013 and forward to prospects for 2014

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Rising utility costs will persist through the spring -- Bloomberg

U.S. consumers got a glimpse of rising future utility bills during the winter as coal- and nuclear-plant shutdowns boosted reliance on natural gas.

Demand for gas, used to heat half of U.S. households and generate 27 percent of the nation’s power, reached records from New York to Los Angeles in January, sending regional prices to all-time highs.

Costs surged as a polar vortex and waves of arctic air caused the coldest weather in 32 years. Prices may rise further next winter as 79 coal-fired power plants close because of stricter environmental rules, while Entergy Corp.’s Vermont Yankee nuclear plant was the fifth to announce a permanent shutdown over the past two years.

“For those willing to write off nuclear and coal, this winter should raise a red flag,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a consulting group in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “We are setting ourselves up for a massive rally in natural gas.’”

Dow Chemical:

The story of the U.S.’ economic success started around four years ago with the advent of horizontal drilling in shale plays, which released massive amounts of oil and gas into the system. Now that shale drilling, the first wave of investment (exploration and production), has come to fruition, ...

• Fitterling explained the next investment wave will come from chemical and steel companies taking advantage of low-priced shale gas, which both companies can use to power their plants and chemical companies can use as a feedstock. This second wave is already taking place right now with more than $100 billion of planned chemical investments throughout the U.S., the majority of which are along the Gulf Coast and throughout Houston.
• looking to the future, the third wave will be related to companies investing in new power plants and bringing back manufacturing to America; and, 
• the fourth wave of investment, which Dow expects to be only a few years down the line, is investment in knowledge — in particular, research and development knowledge.

One could argue that "bringing back manufacturing to America" is already beginning.

That fourth wave is a bit nebulous -- sounds like a President Obama speech.

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The Wall Street Journal

Top story: the Fed rejects Citi's dividend plan. Oh, well.

Obama seeks to rally allies on Russia. Oh, well.

Health-signup extension worries insurers. The Obama administration's decision to let some consumers enroll in health plans beyond Monday's deadline sparked concern among insurers and prompted fresh attacks from opponents of the health law. Folks signing up now will end up paying for premiums for only nine (9) months. I assume, insurers based annual premiums on full year expenses, and then let folks pay monthly, over 12 months. Late enrollees are not getting a free ride: they did not have insurance January - March (unless the policies are retroactive in this crazy thing they call ObamaCare) but the insurers are getting 3/4ths of total annual premium form late enrollees.

Senate Democrats offer fixes for health law. Oh, well. 

Europe is urged to rethink shale.


Kerry tries to salvage Mideast talks.

The drought in Brazil is crimping water and electricity supplies, creating political tensions.

The Ukraine roils GE's Russia strategy, Russian business.

Retailer Brookstone is preparing for bankruptcy. Oh, well.

Microsoft is expected to disclose today that a new version of Office for iPad (new? -- Ithink it's the first version), ending a long practice of offering productivity software exclusively on its own operating software.

The Los Angeles Times

 ObamaCare in California: is Monday the "real" deadline -- yes, that's the top "latest news" story on the front page, on-line. The rules are incredibly confusing. Good luck. I think the rules affect only those who really care.

Is this racist? California Senate leader calling for Yee to either resign or face swift suspention. I don't think he's been convicted of anything yet. Yee was the first Chinese American elected to the state Senate and a leading candidate in the race to become California's secretary of state. He has had a distinguished 3-decade career, and only recently, it appears, has allegedly made some poor decisions, like "sidestepping campaign donation rules in exchange for political favors." Wow, if that's the standard for arrest and removal ...

The Dickinson Press

It is now 9:38 a.m. central time. I have been reading the news since 5:30 a.m. and blogging since6:00 a.m. I felt the top story for the day was the college football unionization rule. It turns out The Dickinson Press agrees: it is the top story right now at The Dickinson Press on-line:

The U.S. government decided on Wednesday that football players at Northwestern University who get scholarship money are effectively school employees and can vote on organizing what could become the first labor union for U.S. college athletes. 

In a move that will fuel a debate over whether college athletes are amateurs or professionals, a National Labor Relations Board regional office said scholarship players at the Evanston, Illinois, school, who have not exhausted their playing eligibility, can vote in a union election. 

The NLRB will supervise the vote. No date has been set and delays could lay ahead if Northwestern appeals the decision, as many labor lawyers expect the university will do.
But if a majority of the Northwestern Wildcats ultimately votes for a union, they could shake up the sporting world by opening the door for other athletes at private universities, which are subject to the National Labor Relations Act.

There are two bigger issues at stake: a) football scholarships are not unique; b) the definition of an employee.

If a scholarship in football defines one as an employee of the school, that should certainly hold true for any student with a scholarship. If this holds, the derivatives are incredible.

If "an employee is an employee," all of a sudden Northwestern University has scores of new employees eligible for ObamaCare, pension plans, etc.

If this holds, my hunch is that universities will quickly "amend" scholarships. 

This is just one story -- another one, the drunken Secret Service detail -- suggests to me rampant failure of leadership that begins at the very top, a president in over his head, and an administration ready to implode. Many folks were surprised to hear that the president said his #1 security issue is a nuclear bomb going off in New York City. It may seem crazy to connect the dots from unionization of football players at one university to the president's stated #1 security concern, but the tea leaves are swirling this morning, more than usual.