************************************ The Showdown ************************************

This is fluid. I don't get television and I seldom listen to the radio, and I don't get the Sunday paper, so I don't know where this issue stands. The last thing I read was the DrudgeReport headline yesterday morning.

*********************WHERE IT STANDS NOW******************

House majority leader says the Republicans, at least in the House, are going to join ranks and not cave. The president has said he will not negotiate.

1. As he did before, the president will "waive" the government shutdown, saying he wants to give the Senate and the House a few more hours to negotiate (he did that last time; Congress missed the midnight deadline but they were close, so he told the government employees to keep working). [Alternate ending: after "blinking" on Syria, the president may want to emulate Dirty "make my day" Harry, and tell non-essential government employees not to show up for work on Tuesday, October 1, 2013. Name-calling ("rump Republicans") did not help the situation. That may have been the tipping point for the GOP to join ranks.]

2. The question is: how long can the president "waive" the shutdown? If he can "waive" it for 24 hours or 72 hours (whatever it was) like he did last time, can he "waive" it for a week? Can he "waive" it for a month?

3. Obviously there will be a point in time when he can no longer delay the shutdown if an agreement is not made.

4. During this period of "purgatory," for lack of a better word, both sides will see who is getting the most blame. That will determine who blinks first. The media, of course, will blame the Republicans.

5. The end-of-the-September/first-of-October government checks will arrive; they are already in the mail. The mid-month government checks are at risk; military members are paid at the end of the month (technically the first day of the following month). I believe Social Security checks are staggered throughout the month -- though it is my understanding they will be paid regardless because Social Security is separate from the funding bill. I don't know. Government obligations, I assume, can come due any day of the month.

******************THE HOUSE GOP****************   1. I don't know if the GOP in the House can hold ranks if the mainstream media supports the president and the polls turn against the Republicans. I don't watch television so I don't know how serious the House majority leader is. For me, the wild card is the House -- whether they can hold their position in the face of a media onslaught.

2. As a body, I don't know if they have much to lose; individually, it depends. My hunch: the Senate GOP will weigh in on their friends in the House.

************************POTUS**********************

1. It is said that presidents are very, very concerned about their legacies. Right now, this president doesn't have much of a legacy and he won't have any legacy if the Affordable Care Act does not succeed.

2. I said this the last time: I don't think the president wants to be a) the first black president; and, b) the first president to permit the US to default on its debts and obligations. Not being a businessman he may not realize how serious that is, and to the 47% they won't understand. But I think even Greece has paid its debts (with the help of German money).


3. Technically, all that is being asked is to "delay the individual mandate." The "employer mandate" has been delayed and "everyone" hates the "individual mandate." This might be a way for the president to save face. I'm using the Syrian analogy.

4. It's pretty obvious the Affordable Care Act -- even if it was a perfect program -- is not ready for prime time. This would be a way for the president to save face, and perhaps save the program: delay implementation, but allow funding to continue to set up the exchanges, so that the program will be in better shape when it does go live.

***************AND NOW THE VIDEO******************

Il Mercenario -- L'Arena, Morricone   The man ringing the bell: Chief Justice Roberts The shooter to the north: the president The shooter to the south: the House majority leader The first dead man: the taxpayer