Friday Links, News, and Commentary

Oil imports: I can't get there from here

The other day, the AP reported that oil imports into the US surged by 12.3%, January, 2013, over December, 2012.

I looked at the EIA numbers and I can't get there (that big a surge in imports). I posted my thoughts at the original post. The 12.3% surge represents significantly more than what Canada and Saudi have historically provided. US imports from Saudi declined significantly in December, but even if Saudi's numbers were brought to recent highs, that would still be well below what is needed to account for the surge. Canadian imports are at all-time highs; it's hard to believe the Canadians could make up the difference.

It will be interesting to see the EIA numbers for January, 2013 and where the "surge" came from -- which countries provided the "surge" in oil imports. 

Jobs data: 236,000 new jobs; unemployment rate 7.7%

Posted prior to data being released:  Speaking of surges, the market has been on a tear this past week. This has resulted in huge interest in today's job numbers. The Fed has established a "new normal" for "full employment": 6.5%. At current rate of "job expansion," we won't get there until 2Q18.

Data point: 208,000 jobs per month -- the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s.

BNY Mellon forecast: 170,000 new jobs
Consensus: around 160,000 new jobs
January, 2013: 157,000 new jobs

Unemployment rate for teenagers: 25% (rounded down). Time to raise the minimum wage.

Speaking of a "new normal"

Prior to the Obama administration, the US never had an official work week. With ObamaCare, that changed. The US now has an official work week. Full time is considered 30 hours/week. Common sense suggested ObamaCare would have an effect on jobs; a suggestion that proponents denied. It turns out that ObamaCare is, indeed, affecting jobs, and sales. That "fact" is reported in the non-partisan Federal Reserve Beige Book (if one argues that the Fed is partisan, note that the "bad news" reported by the Fed is "an Obama Fed." Regardless, the US has a new official work week: 30 hours, another "new normal."

Coal: another new normal

Another "new normal": the end of coal as we know it in the US. RBN Energy updates all the regulatory headwinds affecting coal.