How Bad Is the Employment Picture? LA Times Provides a Bit of Perspective

I reported this earlier but was told that I was a) too negative; or, b) unrealistic about the jobs report today -- in which the US created ALMOST a quarter of a million "new" jobs, including about 50,000 McDonald's jobs (although that has since been disputed). So, forget what I said; look at what the LA Times says:

But an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate — to 9% last month from 8.8% in March — offered a harsh reminder of how deep the roots of America's jobs problem go and how great the challenges remain.

The country gained 244,000 net jobs last month but still needs about 7 million additional jobs just to return to pre-recession levels.

"Just to return to pre-recession levels." Let's see, 7 million/250,000 --> 28 months -- only two more years if we keep this pace.

[Update: after posting the above, I ran across this:

Although Friday's numbers certainly mark an improvement over previous reports, it will take another two and a half years before the economy reaches prerecession employment levels. How long after that it will need to add enough jobs to compensate for population growth will depend on how many people rejoin the labor force. Without question, it would be many more months. -- we must have used the same numbers!

[Update, May 8, 2011: and there's more:

• At the current pace of job creation, the economy won't return to full employment until 2018.
• Middle-income jobs are disappearing from the economy. The share of middle-income jobs in the United States has fallen from 52% in 1980 to 42% in 2010.
• Middle-income jobs have been replaced by low-income jobs, which now make up 41% of total employment.
• 17 million Americans with college degrees are doing jobs that require less than the skill levels associated with a bachelor's degree.

[Update, May 11, 2011: and more: simply put, politicians have it backwards. An increase in GDP is not going to bring back more jobs. Strategic thinking that promotes job growth will bring back more jobs.



This graph/link to Carpe Diem provides some insight into the tectonic shifts we are witnessing. This graph explains why 10% unemployment is the new norm. With this kind of productivity/worker, it hardly makes it necessary to increase hiring. I'm waiting for the day when one can punch in a McDonald's order on a SmartPhone or at the restaurant, and then run a credit card through a reader, and pick up one's order without giving the order or the money to a cashier.  Same concept as self-checkout at the grocery store.

Carpe Diem.com provides a silver lining to this cloudy report; and the comments add some perspective, something the mainstream media failed to report.

Meanwhile more than 80 percent of Americans feel the economy is in poor shape with unemployment the number one problem.