Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Bakken Economy: Minot Voters Approve $40-Million Elementary School; Brent - WTI Spread Below $5

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Voters here have approved a $39.5 million bond referendum to ease crowding at Minot’s elementary schools.
Nearly 67 percent of voters said yes Tuesday to a proposal from Minot Public Schools to build a new elementary school in southeast Minot. The funding also will allow the district to construct additions and renovations to Edison Elementary and Perkett Elementary and add safety enhancements for all district buildings.
Williston's new recreation center was tagged as a $70 million project; I don't know the final outlay.

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Brent - WTI Spread Below $5

From Bloomberg, at the moment, 5:38 p.m. central time, April 9, 2014:
  • Brent: $107.98
    WTI: $103.34
Spread: $4.64

Flashback: one analyst suggested the Brent-WTI spread would average $11 in 2014 --
In the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projects that the discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to North Sea Brent crude oil, which averaged $11 per barrel (bbl) in 2013, will average $11/bbl and continue at the same level in 2014 and 2015 (Figure 1). This discount reflects the economics of transporting and processing the growing production of light sweet crude oil in U.S. and Canadian refineries. EIA expects this forecast WTI discount to represent the Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) discount to Brent minus a pipeline transport cost of approximately $4/bbl from Cushing, Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast.
The WTI–Brent spread previously represented the cost of moving crude oil on marginal modes of transportation such as railroad and truck from the bottleneck at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub. However, with adequate pipeline capacity to move crude from Cushing and growing tight oil plays to the Gulf Coast, Gulf Coast refiners have completely backed out imports of light sweet crude. As a result, lower crude prices, previously limited to the Midcontinent, have moved to the Gulf Coast, and they are reflected in the discount of LLS to Brent, which developed in the second half of 2013.
Continuing strong production growth combined with recent infrastructure adjustments will result in more light sweet crude flowing to the Gulf Coast in 2014 and 2015. EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production grew by more than 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, and the majority of this growth was light sweet crude oil from the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford tight oil formations. In the latest STEO, EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will grow by an additional 1.0 million bbl/d in 2014 and 0.8 million bbl/d in 2015 to reach an average production of 9.2 million bbl/d. Much of this production growth will be in the Gulf Coast or connected to the Gulf Coast region by pipeline.
There are three main recipients for incremental crude production that arrives on the Gulf Coast:
  • U.S. Gulf Coast refineries
  • Canadian refineries via foreign–flagged vessel for holders of export permits
  • U.S. East Coast refineries via U.S.–flagged vessels
Much more linked at the linked article, including talk about the Bakken. 

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