Norway: Poster Child For Citizens Converting To EVs; Oil Demand Is Higher Than Ten Years Ago When First EVs Sold In Norway -- What Does This Mean For US? July, 2023

Locator: 45053EVS.

Link here.

This article (and/or the data contained within) gets so little "play." 

This "factoid" simply has not sunk in; this "factoid" simply does not sink in.

My hunch: we see the same headlines / the same attempt to rationalize this ten years from now.

Population:

• US: 335 million
• Norway: 5 million

The article begins

There are two main reasons for this: i) it takes time for the share of emission-free cars sold to translate into a meaningful gain in the share of the vehicle stock, and, ii) there has been rapid growth in demand for oil products unrelated to transportation.

The first of these reasons—slow fleet turnover—is easily underestimated. Despite soaring sales of zero-emission cars, they accounted just for 12% of the total car fleet at the end of 2020, while gasoline cars accounted for around 43% and diesel cars for about 45%. In 2010, gasoline cars’ share was over 71%, and diesel cars were at 28%. In addition, the total number of private cars rose from 2.3mn in 2010 to 2.8mn in 2020. Gasoline vehicle sales fell by 37% from 1.55mn to 0.95mn, while diesel vehicle sales rose by 55% from 0.80mn to 1.25mn over the same period. Zero-emission cars rose from 2,000 to 0.34m units.

This has translated into gasoline demand falling by around 34% over the last ten years, while diesel demand has risen by about 7.5%. Diesel demand also includes trucks, buses, vans and tractors.

And then goes on from there to try to make their case.

From my perspective, they failed to make their case.