First things first:
- now that I've had a chance to sleep on it, I've sorted this thing out; my mind is clear (as mud)
- late last night there was a mini-debate on the blog between two readers about sanctions on Russia and how those sanctions affected the price of oil
- the discussion was started by me (sorry) and the two debating this: the ever-present "anonymous" and "rsj."
- clearly, "rjs" won that debate; not even close
- "anonymous" had some great points; his/her presentation was better; looked impressive, but missed the target
- "rjs"? right on, as usual, hit the target
ISO NE: wow, I hope you're not charging your EV in Boston overnight.
- demand is paltry
- five-minute real-time: trending toward $400 / MWh at 0400
- pricing at 8th decile; highest decile it can ever hit in NE
- oil: 2%
- natural gas + nuclear: 83%
- renewables: 8% with wind contributing 35%
- there is nothing "wrong" about any of the numbers coming out of ISO NE this morning except the rpice: one has to ask: why is the price of electricity so high today
- it's not rocket science
SNOW: nope, not the weather. The Cloud company. Plummeting.
- off 22% in pre-market trading;
- reports slowing revenue
- annual forecast underwhelms; link to MarketStreet
- another rookie tech mistake from BRK?
- no moat? Anyone can do this: Google, MSFT, Apple
Citi shorted oil. Bad move. Stops out. Link to ZeroHedge.
- how can analysts be this wrong?
Why oil is surging; why Russia is imploding: death by a thousand cuts.
- Sabre Corp -- software giant that pretty much sells seats for all airlines -- ends service with Russia's Aeroflot; will cripple the airline's ability to sell seats
- sure, Russia is still selling Urals; sure, the tankers are still moving if they can get out of the Black Sea;
- so, sure, Russia oil is moving; at what price?
- even before sanctions, even before the incursion, Russia fails to meet OPEC+; spare capacity myth;
- US hits Russian oil refining sector slaps export curbs on Belarus;
- Ryan Roberts doesn't get it; link here; thinks it's a structural inflationary issue;
- sure: inflation tool crude oil from $60 to $120 overnight
Ukraine: in 2007, Time named Putin its "Person of the Year"; link to Brian Taylor;
- full transcript here;
- cut to the chase: do you think Ukraine will ever again become part of Russia;
- Putin: never
- Time: that's what we wanted to hear; good for you; you're our person of the year
- is gullible spelled with five consonants or four?
Crude quality matters: link to Mark Rossano; another one reading the blog for story ideas.
Mideast economies: taking advantage of all this
- talk about a windfall; no wonder they're not interested in trying to bring down prices;
- link to Oxford Business Group;
US investors:
- relative performance over the next 2+ years is going to be dramatic, but you better be long;
- link to Dan Pickering;
Ford:recovers; shocked "the system" in a positive way -- analyst
- will create two distinct internal teams
- one team: will make money;
- the other team: will spend that money
- link here here;
- Ford Blue will make money;
- Ford Model e will spend money
- I can't make this stuff up
- apparently the market loved this
- by the way, a lot of companies are doing this: it's called spinning off their cash cow;
- what's really cool about this, investors can see how much its going to cost them if the want to invest in EVs and renewables.
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