Wow, wow, wow, more to follow as details come in, but there's going to be a huge shift in energy flows over the next six months.
- first, Bloomberg is now reporting a huge plunge in Mexico's crude oil exports for January, 2022, as it tries to maintain refinery operations at max capacity;
- three weeks ago, Mexico said it was pretty much going to cease sending oil to India;
- today, a report that India is looking for other sources to make up the shortfall (see "India" below);
- China said today it won't go along with Biden's push for global SPR releases; could be a political decision, or China could be short oil (I'm thinking the latter but both probably in play);
- Apache announced it will sell non-core assets in the Permian for almost one billion dollars; more details below; and, finally,
- the EU energy crisis this winter: this is quite unbelievable -- details need to be fact-checked to make sure we're comparing apples to apples, but oilprice is reporting that the EU energy bill this year will be $1.2 trillion; this compares to previous year expense of ... drum roll ... only $200 billion; and,
- then, of course, Russia spokesperson says if Nord Stream 2 is buried empty at the bottom of the ocean, Europe can expect upwards of 5x more in energy costs, again, specifics need to be fact-checked, but,
- things are moving rapidly.
India:
- Russia is producing 10.164 million bopd
- expects to export 4.176 million bopd
- Indian has stepped in to buy 6 million bbls of Urals (most in three years)
- Urals and other Russia grades are not being purchased by others
Apache: multiple sources; other scan fact-check me on this; posting in a hurry; family errands to run:
- link here;
- earnings call;
- gross acreage position in the Permian: 4.9 million acres
- Apache has 1.8 million net mineral Permian acres (1.8 / 4.9 = 37%)
- to sell 70,000 acres non-core Permian -- see reader's note below -- apparently just selling minerals in this non-core area, not the whole enchilada ...
- production consists of 7,000 boepd, 44% oil
- in round numbers, it look like APA produces about 240,000 boepd in the US
- $805 million deal to close by end of February
- Apache has 1.8 million net mineral Permian acres
- back-of-the-envelope:
- $850 million / 70,000 acres = $12,000 / acre
- $850 million / 7,000 boepd = $120,000 / boepd
- the numbers seem "bizarre"; someone else can fact check them but this is based on the linked article;
- later, from a reader who knows this a whole better than I do -- They are selling their minerals rights only - not their operated wells and acreage. Some of the conventional metrics when valuing operated acreage will seem out of whack here. Comment: that's a big help. Thank you.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $91.59 | 2/25/2022 | 02/25/2021 | 02/25/2020 | 02/25/2019 | 02/25/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 32 | 15 | 49 | 66 | 57 |
One new permit, $38798:
- Operator: Zavanna
- Field: Stockyard Creek (Williams)
- Comments:
- Zavanna has a permit for a Galloway well in SESE 18-154-99;
- to be sited 742 FSL and 1089 FEL;
Six permits renewed:
- Enerplus: five LK-Olson permits in Dunn County; and one Storhaug permit in Williams County; I assume these were all acquired from Hess; certainly the LK-Olson wells were; not sure about the Storhaug well in Dublin oil field;
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
- 36619, 574, Petroshale, Anderson South 3MBH, Croff, NDIC scout ticket shows this as PNC/A.
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