WTI Surges And Closes Just Under $95 -- February 14, 2022

I was completely surprised by this surge in the price of oil late in the day. I have been off the computer since before noon and haven't watched any television (no CNBC) so I have no idea what this is all about.

The weekly API and EIA figures don't come out until tomorrow and Wednesday. It sounded like analysts were still betting that peace would break out in Ukraine. 

This was earlier. WTI closed at $94.93.

********************
ISO NE

Wow, it just won't quit, the craziness.

It appears that ISO NE now has stocks of coal and oil back after having run out of same last week.

Demand today, Monday, Valentine's Day, shortly before the evening commute and dinner hour, is at a relatively unremarkable 17,571 MW.

To meet demand (and keep prices "reasonable"),

• oil is providing a whopping 8% of the supply / demand;
• coal is back to 2%
• hydro, very expensive, is back to 11%
• and this is despite renewables supplying 10% of demand and wind providing 59% of renewable
• 0.1 * 0.59 = almost 6% (wind, by itself)

Cost of electricity, 6th decile, about $125 / MW across the region.