Clearing The In-Box From Overnight -- February 28, 2022

Gold: Russia's central bank is scrambling to buy gold as ruble collapses. 

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. Down eleven basis points; 1.87%.
  
• DXY: link here. Over the weekend, pundits said the dollar "would explode (surge): in fact, it barely moved, up 0.20% at $96.81.
  
• Silver: link here. Up 1.53%; trading at $24.365.
  
• Gold: link here. Up but barely, up 0.3%; trading at $1,894.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. Very, very high and rising; up 13% today; at 31.1 now vs 27 previous close. One-year high: 31.96.
  

Current quotes, for oil:

• Josh Young: $150
• Rystad Energy: $130
• JPMorgan: $120

Trans Mountain pipeline: not on my Monday morning bingo card -- regulator says work on key pipeline terminals can proceed. Link here. 

• Trans Mountain now expects expansion to be complete in 3Q23;
• capacity will triple, from Alberta to the Pacific Coast, to almost 900,000 bopd

Lego: will add 60 brand-news on March 1, 2022 -- tomorrow. Caught my eye:

• John Deere 9620R 4WD Tractor, look at this price point: $29.99
• Telehandler, $12.99
• baseplates, several new colors, styles: from $9.99 to $14.99

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PDC: Wattenberg Oil Field

Updates

Later, 7:03 p.m. CT: I see some folks over on twitter don't understand the difference between "Wattenberg" and "D-J." Wikipedia entry will help. Those who do not understand the difference, do not be ashamed: it's a rookie mistake. Twelve years ago I would have not known the difference either but after twelve years of blogging about the Bakken, I understand the difference between the "D-J" and the "Wattenberg."

Original Post

PDC: adds to inventory with $1.3 billion core Wattenberg acquisition. Press release.
acquires Great Western Petroleum, a privately held D-J Basin operator owned by group of investors

• increases quarterly base dividend more than 100% to 25 cents/share
• plans to increase dividend to 35 cents/share once deal closes
• commits returning a minimum of 60% of annual post-dividend free cash flow to shareholders
• systematic share repurchases and special dividend, if needed
• $1.3 billion deal
• 55,000 boepd ($24K / boepd)
• addition of 315 identified locations, including 125 combined DUCs and approved permits

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Global SPR releases: could be as much as 70 million bbls

• amounts to 18 hours of global consumption

Around the world:

• Equinor: follows BP, will exit JVs in Russia.
• Russia: forbids foreigners to sell stocks.
• Germany: power operators reject call to keep nuclear plants running (someone sees a lot of money from existing wind / solar)
• XOM: so far, has kept quiet about its huge investments in Russia
  

Sarah Bloom Raskin: nominated by the president to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve System. In July, 2020, when oil was trading at $40 / bbl, she famously predicted:

"There is no indication that the value of fossil fuel assets is ever going to return. It's one of the worst investments there is, and yet this is one that the Fed has picked."

• Perfectly qualified for the job; should be a unanimous confirmation

• Note:
• SRE, a $124-stock, was up $7 on Friday, last week;
• today, SRE, a $124-stock is up another $5 today, Monday;
• one assumes Ms Raskin can do the math
  

• Others today:
• ENB: up 1% today; at/near 52-week high; pays 6.28%; about 600 basis points better than the Fed;
• EPD: up 2.4% today; at/near 52-week high; pays 7.6%; 760 basis points better than the Fed;
• EOG: up 5.5% today; at/near 52-week high; pays 2.7%; 270 basis points better than the Fed;
  
• CVX: up 2% today; new 52-week high; pays 4%; 400 basis points better than the Fed;
• PDC: see above
• Clazy (as my mother-in-law used to say): amazing to know that BlackRock is divesting its fossil fuel energy holdings

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New Book 

Released February 8, 2022:

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Movies

Nine must-see Elizabeth Taylor movies on what-would-have-been her 90th birthday. Link here, includes Giant, which I just saw from start to finish for the first time ever, over the weekend.

• James Dean's character a bit of a disappointment
• I now understand the reason for the close relationship between Rock Hudson and Elizabeth Taylor years later, off-stage; great, wonderful relationship from what little I know;
• all three, Elizabeth Taylor, Rock Hudson, and James Dean brilliant casting choices; hard to imagine anyone else; Robert Mitchum would not have worked for the Rock Hudson character.

Jack Reacher: great movie. Watched it for the third or fourth time over the weekend. Three observations:

• the public defender really, really was dumb; hard to believe the questions she asked Jack Reacher;
• the car chase scene lasted a bit too long but all-in-all okay;
• the final "fist-fight" between Jack Reacher and the arch-henchman was really, really unnecessary; a quick shot to the head would have been more satisfying;
• Tom Cruise still has his trademark smirk; a little off-putting after all these years;
• the worst thing: the "mystery" and "solving" the case was incredible; best part of the movie, but, the underlying crime was incredibly mundane and unimaginative; that many innocent people killed and that much follow-on violence for a bit of white-collar crime? Perhaps that was the sign of the times when crime wasn't all that big in the US.