Returning To Normal; Gasoline Demand Is Going To Surprise -- Texas -- March 8, 2021

Breaking news: Dak reaches deal with Dallas Cowboys; or, vice versa: Dallas Cowboys reach deal with Dak. 

Now, back to regular programming. 

On/about February 19, 2021, four days after the Texas deep freeze, I said that in two weeks the deep freeze would be forgotten (don't take that out of context) and in four weeks "we" would be all back to Covid-19 normal. 

Today, March 8, 2021, less than four weeks later, commercial activity in Texas is back to normal, there is no evidence of gasoline shortages, and Bloomberg is reporting that Gulf Coast refiners are emerging from the deep freeze and buying US oil again. Whoo-hoo!

Chevron is restarting its refinery at Pasadena, TX. 

I guess that's why WTI dropped back today:

• things are back to normal in Texas; and,
• the hooties inflicted little (if any) damage on Saudi Arabian facilities

So, there you have it.  

But having said all that, Julianne Geiger has another take on this. Link here.  Using the same Bloomberg article / data, here is how she reported the story:

• just seven of 18 refineries along the Gulf Coast are operating normally;
• throughput may be down as much as 5.5 million bbls/day
• weekly US percent utilization of refinery operable capacity dipped to 56% during the week ending February 26, 2021 -- the lowest operable utilization of operable capacity since the EIA began tracking the data in November, 1990;
• all signs point to this utilization increasing and crude stocks decreasing;
• the largest refinery in the US, Motiva's 607,000 bop Port Arthur refinery restarted its largest crude oil processing unit relatively quickly, on February 26, after 11 days;
• several other refineries will open in the next week or so;
• however, Shell's 318,000 bpd Deer Park refinery could be down until April;
  

OPEC+ surprise move: shows OPEC is still "in control." Link here. 

 If what the tea leaves are suggesting is accurate, Saudi Arabia has changed its strategy completely. This could get very interesting very, very quickly. $150 oil? The tea leaves suggest that is Saudi's goal. They don't think US shale can recover under Biden. That's what the tea leaves suggest.

Gasoline demand: will soar this summer. Link here. 

Holy sh*t: I think things are moving more quickly than anyone imagined. Northern Californians are taking to the open road in much greater numbers, an early signal that gasoline demand may be returning a year after the pandemic paralyzed the economy. Link here. 

Tea leaves: WTI could melt up to $80 before end of 1H. I really don't think that will happen but I bet we start to see such talk in social media. If you doubt me, scroll through energy sites over at Twitter. 

For the record, last week's "global demand" graph -- let's see how "steep" the curve turns over the next four weeks.

Not-ready-for-prime-time: there must be a gazillion great investing opportunities, but it's hard for me to not acquire more shares in US pipeline companies.

Tiger update: Ambien. Link here. Halcion, not the same drug as Ambien, is well known for retrograde amnesia, for which I have a great USAF real-world mission story, but I'm pretty sure I shouldn't post it. In fact, I have two great Halcion stories from my time in the USAF. The second one I can relate. Maybe when I'm in the right mood and have lots of time, I'll post the story.

Retrograde amnesia is a form of amnesia where someone is unable to recall events that occurred before the development of the amnesia, even though they may be able to encode and memorize new things that occur after the onset.