The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- August 19, 2020

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- August 19, 2020

Weekly report, link here:

US crude oil in storage: decreased by 1.6 million bbls
US crude oil in storage: now stands at 512.5 million bbls; 15% above the already-fat five-year average;
refiners operating at 80.9% -- still historically low but at least in the "80's"
US crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million b/d last week; up by 109,000 b/d from the previous week;
US crude oil imports average about 5.6 million bld over the past four week;s about 22% less than the same four-week period last year;
jet fuel supplied down about the same as the last report; down about 48% compared with same four-week period last year;

Re-balancing:

Week	Date of Report=	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 76	May 20, 2020	-5.0	526.5
Week 77	May 28, 2020	7.9	534.4
Week 78	June 3, 2020	-2.1	532.3
Week 79	June 10, 2020	5.7	538.1
Week 80	June 17, 2020	1.2	539.3
Week 81	June 24, 2020	1.4	540.7
Week 82	July 1, 2020	-7.2	533.5
Week 83	July 8, 2020	5.7	539.2
Week 84	July 15, 2020	-7.5	531.7
Week 85	July 22, 2020	4.9	536.6
Week 86	July 29, 2020	-10.6	526.0
Week 87	August 5, 2020	-7.4	518.6
Week 88	August 12, 2020	-4.5	514.1
Week 89	August 19, 2020	-1.6	512.5

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 5	4/11/2020	-39.70%
Week 6	4/18/2020	-53.60%
Week 7	4/24/2020	-61.60%
Week 8	5/1/2020	-66.60%
Week 9	5/8/2020	-68.50%
Week 10	5/15/2020	-67.90%
Week 11	May 22, 2020	-66.60%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	-68.70%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	-63.70%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	-62.30%
Week 15	June 24, 2020	-62.50%
Week 16	July 1, 2020	-60.00%
Week 17	July 8, 2020	-57.20%
Week 18	July 15, 2020	-51.90%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	-47.70%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	-42.10%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	-40.90%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	-45.80%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	-47.60%

US crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070
Week 4	April 8, 2020	5.9	-0.173
Week 5	April 15, 2020	5.7	-0.194
Week 6	April 22, 2020	5.6	-0.700
Week 7	April 29, 2020	5.3	0.365	-19.700%
Week 8	May 6, 2020	5.7	0.410
Week 9	May 13, 2020	5.4	-0.321	-26.100%
Week 10	May 20, 2020	5.2	-0.194
Week 11	May 28, 2020	7.2	2.000	-16.400%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	6.2	-1.000	-18.300%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	6.4	0.000	-13.300%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	6.6	-0.222	-10.000%
Week 15	June 24, 2020	6.5	-0.102	-11.600%
Week 16	July 1, 2020	6.5	-0.600	-11.300%
Week 17	July 8, 2020	7.4	1.400	-8.500%
Week 18	July 15, 2020	7.5	-1.800	-10.200%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	5.9	0.373	-13.500%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	5.1	-0.800	-13.600%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	6.0	0.900	-18.100%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	5.6	-0.389	-20.400%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	5.7	0.109	-21.700%

6 comments:

JohnAugust 19, 2020 at 10:07 AM
I see a balanced report considering the bottom line of -707 imports on line 33, 5 million barrels. A lot of product was exported. Interesting to see the SPR drop by 2.7 million barrels. Space in the SPR was leased for contango oil, this report does not show what is actually SPR oil vs. oil space leased.
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JohnAugust 19, 2020 at 12:53 PM
It will get interesting for the next 3 months;

-looks like about 10 million barrels oil left of leased space in SPR.
-without many completions, production decline will continue.
-several producers have stated that shut-ins are decreasing.
-wild card is that it is coming to peak of hurricane season, GOM surface temperature is slightly above average. Sizable hurricanes have shut down production, refineries, close ports.

Although demand is down, balanced with production decline for now. Agree the data is boring, still good data
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rjsAugust 20, 2020 at 7:13 PM
re: refinery utilization low but at least in the "80's"...Aug 16 last year it was at 95.9%, and 17,702,000 barrels per day were being refined, 22.2% more than this week...

as John noted, over 700K bpd have been pulled from the SPR over the past two weeks, so it appears we're reversing the additions to the SPR of a couple months ago...that means that the reported storage withdrawal numbers are being deflated now by not including those SPR withdrawals, just as the storage builds of two - three months ago were deflated by not including the additions to the SPR back then...what i'm getting at is that if the SPR is now being used as commercial storage virtually every week, thenwhat goes in & out of it for commercial use should be included in the reported commercial inventory totals, and not be invisible to those who aren't watching closely..
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