I don't think there's much new there, and I don't particularly care for the contributor, but it is what it is. It's mostly an advertisement for the contributor's newsletter or research reports.
Having said that, here's the summary:
- US oil production came in at ~12.88 mb/d according to the latest EIA 914, which was ~100k b/d higher than our preliminary estimate of ~12.75 to ~12.8 mb/d.
- The higher than expected production increase came primarily from a jump in the Gulf of Mexico production of +90k b/d m-o-m.
- According to our production matrix, US oil production in November was the peak with December tracking around ~12.8 to ~12.85 mb/d or slightly down versus November.
- The key for US oil production trajectory this year will be where US oil production bottoms out going into H2 2020.
- We continue to think the global energy agencies are overestimating US oil production for Q2 2020.
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ReplyDeleteEIA 914 for NOV:
www.eia.gov/...
US was up over 200,000 bopd from OCT (slightly revised up, itself.)
Oil states and changes in order of current size down to 50,000 bopd:
State NOV Change
U.S. Total 12,879 203
Texas 5,329 65
Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico 1,995 91
North Dakota 1,479 (3)
New Mexico 1,063 59
Oklahoma 575 (17)
Colorado 562 7
Alaska 485 10
California 425 (6)
Wyoming 293 2
Louisiana 122 2
Utah 102 1
Kansas 87 (1)
Ohio 78 (8)
Montana 68 4
West Virginia 51 (2)
Others 168 (2)
TX made a nice showing at +65. So much for the "peaked Permian". I sorta want +75s. But +65 is still commendable.
As I expected, FGOM made a nice rebound at almost +100. One that I warned the naysayers about. Now, if they can do a bit more (gotta be above 2 MM for street cred), that will still help with the 13 banger.
ND flat (down slightly) as expected. We get the NDIC early so know the directionality. DEC may be tough too because of winter, could even be down some reasonable amount (-25?).
NM...ah the Land of Enchantment! OCT was actually revised UP and crossed the 1 MM bopd marker. And then we got an outstanding +59 from them for the NOV number. I sort of count on them for +25 each month, so that was great work. Just no slacking off in DEC please. Need at least another +25 to get my 13 banger, with taunting rights.
OK: I can't figure this state out. And neither can anyone else. It's even funkier than CO in how the numbers move. But...well the bloom is off the rose hard for the Anadarko. Seems like it's showing in the rig counts and then the production (-17). Still...a quixotic jog up next month would help the cause.
CO: Eh...close to flat (+7). Could use a little bit more next month. Especially since I sort of group OK and CO together. So put down the doobies and cover up for your slacking mountain boomer brethren.
AK: Up +10 and every bit helps. But most of it's seasonal rebound was a couple months ago. At this point, we actually know the AK figures for DEC (from STEO/weeklies) off of pipe flow. And should be flat in DEC.
CA: Down a bit. Still lots of oil left in this state but impossible to do business with the liberals in control. Continues it's slow decline. Probably flat in DEC.
WY: Close to flat at +2. Flat seems reasonable expectation for DEC.
LA: See WY.
UT and KS: See WY but +1, -1.
OH: Kind of a big drop. But they have a lot of recent wells that are high decline. And have been extremely sensitive to oil (and even gas) prices in the past, both up and down. Given situation, have to expect another small decline in DEC.
MT: Kind of strange how this state has been stealthily climbing up, last few months. Nice +4 gain and in striking distance of three-quarters of 100,000 bopd. Realistically DEC will probably be small decline, based on weather and activity.
WV: Down a couple but hanging in the 50+ club. How many people realize the App makes significant oil! Paging James "I have more citations than you do" Hamilton!
Others: Down 2, close to flat and only 168,000 left total. Nothing significant within the states to get that down 2. Expect continued small declines, maybe a couple more, in DEC. Tired old states like IL and MI and the like. MS is the closest to crossing into the 50+ club (at 48), but there's no activity there, so not gonna happen.
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ReplyDeleteDEC projections (with a hope flavor):
TX: +65 (like +75 but being reasonable)
FGOM: +25 (I still think there is more to give back from hurricane return.)
ND: -25 (flat would be nice, but being reasonable given weather)
NM: +25 (worried about a relapse after so much growth...but then also the growth is a Bayesian indicator for more...so fine, +25)
AK: +5 (too lazy to check, but think there's a little more maintenance recovery)
All others: -10 (matching last month change)
Total change: +85.
This would give us a 12.964. Sorta rounds out to a 13.0. But I'm not sure if I can taunt based off of that. Perhaps not. It's not really a 13-handle.
Still, it will be a nailbiter. If ND could "hold the line" that would be an extra 25 and get us up to 12.989. Then...if TX could scrunch down and give us the +75 instead of the +65, that would get us to 12.999! Ai yi yi! Need OK/CO to do some little statistical randomness wiggle and give us an uptick (any uptick) and all others hold the line in order to get our taunting rights.
(3 of x, x =3)
ReplyDeleteNot gonna analyze the gas in detail.
www.eia.gov/...
But still, you're looking at over 107 BCF/d wet in lower 48. (Always have to separate out AK gas as it is stranded.)
PA is kissingly close to 20 BCF/d (19.911). Has a chance to hit it in DEC.
TX went up ~0.2 BCF/d last month and is close to 30 BCF/d. But probably a bit too far to get there in DEC. "Only" 29.337 now.
Thank you very much. I've re-posted all comments as a stand-alone post for easier access and comments.
DeleteSee this post: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2020/02/from-reader-update-on-us-oil-and.html.